Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Fed rate hike vs Emerging market currency depreciation.

Right now financial market is facing the threat of rate hike in US. I think every nation has its right to protect their economy or making things better for their people, their industries e.t.c. This year currencies of Emerging nations have depreciated lot, like in Brazil, India & latest in China. Somewhere I saw that after yesterday’s devaluation China also depreciated their currencies today. Indian currencies also depreciated lot today in intra-day basis.

Today during trading hours I was really thinking is there any connection of these latest currency devaluations or depreciation with any imminent risk asset sell-off which authorities are sensing. I am not very much sure whether any sell-off is coming but some of the sectors like mining, industrial metals are giving brilliant buying opportunities. Few days ago I was talking to one of my friend from Brazil about Vale, it looks cheap but still I did not find strong voice from him about buying at this time. I think Brazilian market is giving better buying opportunity if you consider their currency depreciation; probably they need some political support.

India opened the route of PF funds to invest in stock market through etfs, that is very good sign. I think this type of step will increase the strength of our stock market as well as economy. As a matter of fact in future we may not have to depend on foreign institutions. I also suggest some entry & exit load for these foreign institutions.



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Friday, August 1, 2014

BRICs with aggressive look and may not repeat the mistake of Euro-zone.

6th BRICs summit in Fortaleza, Brazil will be remembered for $100 bn BRICs Development Bank & Reserve Currency Pool. China is the highest ($41) contributor of this $100bn CRA while newest member South Africa with $5bn & rest with $18 each. There is also creation of BRICs Stock Alliance to cross list derivatives and proposal of Energy Alliance.


BRICs nations have around 20% of world GDP but they have just 10.3% for the IMF quota and not only that the presidency of this IMF is reserved for a European. Somewhere I was seeing GDP & IMF voting right figures of some nations –

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Stock Market & state of Economy.

Stock market is the barometer of the economy….. ?????? !!!!!!!!!

As we are more or less aware about the economic performances of these nations but this is not necessary that their stock market will speak the same language all the time.

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Saturday, December 28, 2013

Future of Korean KOPSI.

Kospi is still in the same spot which I have specified in my last posting. 1980 level is a good support for coming week and there is a good chance that it may bounce in the upside from that level. But if Kospi breaks around 1950-60 ranges in the downside then it will be not good for it, as there is a chance of creating a bearish pattern.


In coming week if Kospi breaks 2000 ranges in the upside then it will try to test 2050 range which it failed to break in last two years. But unless Kospi is breaking 2020 range in the upside or at least give us a sign that it is going to stay above that range we may not see a better environment and for this I think it is better get full confirmation in this higher level.


Last time I was talking about an upward channel and since it does not break that level completely so I am still maintaining my view of starting a new uptrend if it breaks around 2050 level.

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Future of HANG SENG.

Hang Seng is getting resistance at around 23250 ranges and unless it is breaking that level, 23550 ranges look far from it.

Last two days were better for it and so long it maintains 22500 range I can not negate the move of testing 23550 level.

But if it breaks 22500 range in the downside then it may go into a bearish zone, in fact it may make a bearish pattern in future so therefore Hang Seng may test around 21500 range.

On a long-term basis it is moving an upward channel from around 2011 level so unless it is breaking that channel I am not expecting a big correction in Hang Seng.

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