Sunday, November 27, 2016

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

Saturday, May 28, 2016

Economical problems are always better option for market than Political problems.

Traders around the world were in better condition in past when market was ruled by European debt crisis (PIIGs) than now when market is facing a situation in gulf region & related refuge problem. Not only European debt crisis is more connected with economics but its effects have created more panic in the market. As a trader in the equity market always I am looking for more volatility in the market & that is better when matter is more connected with economics, obviously this question will not come if it is a world war or something like that.

In coming days market is expecting high volatility in response of Brexit & Fed’s rate hike but as matters are progressing I feel that it may not create that much what media are highlighting. Especially when Britain’s exit may not be sure as we are seeing in different news, I think it may be going to effect their currency too. On the other hand today or tomorrow Fed is going to hike the rate so question may come about their timing.

A new problem is trying to emerge in South China Sea but I feel it is purely a political one & comparing to gulf problem its effect will be less on market. It is better for big fishes to look on the economical one than the political one, either way market is not going to eat up this as we have seen in case of gulf.



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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Fed rate hike vs Emerging market currency depreciation.

Right now financial market is facing the threat of rate hike in US. I think every nation has its right to protect their economy or making things better for their people, their industries e.t.c. This year currencies of Emerging nations have depreciated lot, like in Brazil, India & latest in China. Somewhere I saw that after yesterday’s devaluation China also depreciated their currencies today. Indian currencies also depreciated lot today in intra-day basis.

Today during trading hours I was really thinking is there any connection of these latest currency devaluations or depreciation with any imminent risk asset sell-off which authorities are sensing. I am not very much sure whether any sell-off is coming but some of the sectors like mining, industrial metals are giving brilliant buying opportunities. Few days ago I was talking to one of my friend from Brazil about Vale, it looks cheap but still I did not find strong voice from him about buying at this time. I think Brazilian market is giving better buying opportunity if you consider their currency depreciation; probably they need some political support.

India opened the route of PF funds to invest in stock market through etfs, that is very good sign. I think this type of step will increase the strength of our stock market as well as economy. As a matter of fact in future we may not have to depend on foreign institutions. I also suggest some entry & exit load for these foreign institutions.



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Friday, August 1, 2014

BRICs with aggressive look and may not repeat the mistake of Euro-zone.

6th BRICs summit in Fortaleza, Brazil will be remembered for $100 bn BRICs Development Bank & Reserve Currency Pool. China is the highest ($41) contributor of this $100bn CRA while newest member South Africa with $5bn & rest with $18 each. There is also creation of BRICs Stock Alliance to cross list derivatives and proposal of Energy Alliance.


BRICs nations have around 20% of world GDP but they have just 10.3% for the IMF quota and not only that the presidency of this IMF is reserved for a European. Somewhere I was seeing GDP & IMF voting right figures of some nations –

Saturday, July 12, 2014

Stock Market & state of Economy.

Stock market is the barometer of the economy….. ?????? !!!!!!!!!

As we are more or less aware about the economic performances of these nations but this is not necessary that their stock market will speak the same language all the time.

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