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Week ended 12/17/2010 -- Markets this week

Again a fall in EURO, after Moody’s downgrades Spain’s debt. Unemployment in UK increased by 35000 in October to 2.5 million. Industrial production of 16 EURO nations have increased as well as Germany’s  which is 3%.  Germany’s  central bank has forecast economic growth of 3.6% in 2010. IMF has approved fund of 22.5 billion EUROs for Ireland in 3 years. Irish republic also returned into growth between  July - September quarter.
Let see the market this week -------


Index
Week ended Dec17
       (%)

Week ended Dec10(%)





OIL  (jan)
88.02
0.27%

-1.56%





GOLD (jan)
1378.8
-0.37%

-1.56%





DOW
11491
0.71%

0.24%





LONDON
5871
1.01%

1.16%





BRAZIL
67981
-0.52%

2.04%





JAPAN
10303
0.90%

0.32%





INDONESIA
3581
-4.43%

1.37%





CHINA
2893
1.83%

0.03%





INDIA
19864
1.82%

2.29%



China  is going to raise its inflation target for 2011 to 4% from 3% now, it is also likely to set target $1.1 trillion of new loans for  2011, 8% economic growth, 16% increase in money supply. Despite increasing inflation PBOC is not  raising its  rate because they are anticipating asset bubbles. China again increasing it’s holding of  U.S. treasury.


In spite of strong Yen, Japanese  Tanken main index was good in past but in December it has fallen. It reflects the view of large manufacturers in Japan. 
In coming days if oil breaks 84.50 level then it can go further down,  on the up side if it able to close above  89.50 level  for few days then we can see an up move  from there. Right now its immediate target looks to me, that is beating  88.50 on the up side.

Gold is still making the pattern  but  it looks to me that it may go up  because the liquidity in the market is increasing.

Market in coming week
Dow has the scope of going upward but technical indicators showing that it is over bought, same with FTSE as it is unable to close above 5900. In coming month 3950 is the level for CAC  that need to be look in. Still there is no correction in T-SEC as it is going upward NIKKEI  showing no sign of correction it is  moving in respect of strong GDP  and YEN depreciation against EURO. Brazil’s IBOVESPA is looking close to find it’s short-term support. Shanghai composite may test it’s low of 2800 level, but among the Asian big indexes it is looking little less overbought along with India.


India’s WPI fell in November so chance of rate increase is less now. Chinese premier’s visit of India and $20 billion business deal may be good for relation between this two countries but India is really worried about the trade deficit with china and it is pushing china to open it’s market for Indian IT, Pharma and agri products.
10 years U.S. treasury yield which was increasing in early periods of this week is again starts to decline and the USD which may again go up in coming week, these things along with European economic issue, China rate cut and Korean tension may effect the trading in coming week. There are also many reports  those are due in coming week such as existing & new home sales, unemployment claims, consumer spending  e.t.c.

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

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