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Week ended 01/21/2011 -- Market this week .

Some mixed news from Europe such as rise in unemployment rate in UK, rate cut in Tunisia by Moody’s due to political problem and  better GDP forecast and rise in business confidence index in Germany e.t.c.
Banks in U.S. is showing some mixed figures. In Asia  better than expected Chinese GDP growth rate (10.3%), reduced inflation in December (4.6%)  and continued threat of rate hike from some Asian countries were some of the important events this week.

INDEX
21-Jan-11
( % )



DOW
11871
0.71%



FTSE
5896
-1.54%



CAC
4017
0.85%



DAX
7062
-0.18%



NIKKEI
10274
-2.14%



HANG SENG
23876
-1.67%



AUS
4755
-0.95%



SHANGHAI
2715
-2.72%



SENSEX
19007
0.77%



BOVESPA
69133
-2.54%



RUSSIA
7147
0.81%



JKSE
3379
-5.32%



KOSPI
2069
-1.85%



STRAITS
3184
-1.87%



THAI
1006
-2.51%



ARGENTINA
3648
3.07%



S. AFRICA
32140
-1.59%



Some stock markets faces huge correction this week, especially those index which are suffering from rate hike like Indonesian market. But Argentina’s market is quite different from others. Nikkei faces some correction after a long day this week, coming week will be a test for it. There were some news that foreign investors are leaving some markets  like India, actually they are withdrawing  huge amounts from there, may be they are temporarily shifting some amounts to other places.



COMMODITY

COMMODITY
21-Jan-11
( % )



GOLD (Feb)
1341
-1.39%



OIL  (Mar)
89.11
-3.73%



COPPER (Mar)
430.9
-2.33%


Many experts are saying that these corrections in oil are related to it’s inventory but I would like to relate it with stock market. If stock market rebounds from here oil price will also be going up.
Oil may can make a little more correction but if dollar gives support it can again move upward. At 89 oil gets a good short-term  support. But the rate hike  episodes those are due in many countries, unless those are cleared, it will not be good to assume a long up move in oil from here.
I see more down side in Gold from here. I am not sure but sometime I feel all the action is now shifting into Silver this may be one of the main cause of this type of negative performance of Gold. Economies are improving their positions so they are shying away from Gold. The only hope right now I see for Gold is the use of gold as an inflation hedge.


Currency


CURRENCY
21-Jan-11
( % )



EURO
1.362
-1.71%



AUD
0.989
0.10%



YEN
82.56
-0.33%



RUPEE
45.7
0.88%



SWISS FRANC
0.958
-0.62%



S.African RAND
7.035
1.69%



Brazilaian REAL
1.675
-0.65%



Mexican PESO
12.054
0.21%


For Euro 1.36 is very crucial level for any up-move to touch November 2010 high. But right now it is enjoying it’s couple of week’s positive rally looks like  bond selling, some other better economic news such as German business confidence and GDP data  e.t.c  are positive for Euro’s move. But how long it can make this appreciation in this situation where countries like Germany is going to get disadvantage in export market.
Australia is facing lot of problems, so in this circumstances it’s currency may leave it’s up move as happens in this week.



Treasury Yields

Treasury
21-Jan-11
( % )



2-Year Treasury
0.612
5.69%



5-Year Treasury
2.011
4.63%



10-Year Treasury
3.404
-2.43%



30-Year Treasury
4.565
0.81%



April to October 2010 treasury yields made a huge downward movement but from mid November to December it’s up move made many to book losses, such as CITY.  I  will come on this topic on a separate issue.
Long term 30 years tr. Yieds is still increasing, lot of buying are happenings now in this time frame.




Coming week

Shanghai composite  look for short-term get support in 2700 area but in coming days if situation deteriorate it may look for support in 2600 level, but right now with good GDP numbers & last day’s close above 2700 level is good  signal. Right now if I only look in chart my view will be for long time up market in shanghai composite.
As I told in my previous writing that Indonesia is facing huge threat of interest hike so stock index is showing it’s effect. In coming days there we can see some downfall.
Australian ASX 200 couldn’t able to cross the April 2010 high but if commodity price and natural disaster give it support then in coming week it may again try to cross this level, last two day’s commodity price action made the market down.
Last day I was talking about the overbought Japanese market, at last it faces some correction this week. In coming week I will not be astonished if I see more corrections in this market.
Kospi is the another index that after a longtime faces some huge correction in last day of the week, immediate supports look to me at 2040. But I will be looking for more correction in this market.
Russia’s TITAN is getting resistance in 7220 & if things get good in coming week it may again test that level. Except in may2010, it is yet to face any big correction.
Some bad news made two bad days for it in this week. Though it did a positive figure in last day but I think it is very much vulnerable for any upcoming news.
CAC failed to past it’s April 2010 high in this week but in coming week it may again try to do that.
Dax failed to cross it’s may2008 high. But it looks to me if there will not be any major bad news then it will going to past that level in coming week.
For Bovespa 68000 is crucial support. Last 3 days it faces some correction. In coming week if it does lower closes then I think  it is a good buy for quick profit.
Straits is  facing a good support at 3200 if it brakes it in coming week it may test 3100 level.
Thailand SET has not faced any big correction in 2010, June-November is a big run for it. Last two days of this week it faces some big corrections. In lower side in coming days it may test 990 level, but in this level it can again make an up side move.

Reports those  are due in coming week from USA are Consumer confidence, New home sales, Unemployment claim, Pending home sales e.t.c. Market sentiment has not changed much from last week, let see in coming week how the quarterly results effects stock markets. 
I will not be trading freely unless rate hikes and inflation fears remove at least to a certain extent from markets. But as there is some news that foreign investors are shifting moneys, I will obviously look into that aspect while doing trading.



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.



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