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Week ended 01/28/2011 -- Market this week

Japan’s credit rating was downgraded by  S&P  for it’s worsening debt situation, there was also looming threat to US about it’s downgrade. There were some mix reports from USA, like increase in GDP growth but less new home sales in 2010 e.t.c.
Australian PM announced a new tax for helping in flood affected areas. Chinese Govt. announced property tax for controlling house price and inflation. Where as South Korean economic growth slows in last quarter of last year. In Spain, Govt. came into an understanding with labor unions for increasing the retirement age.



INDEX
28-Jan-11
21-28 JAN-11
14-21 JAN-11




DOW
11823
-0.40%
0.71%




FTSE
5881
-0.25%
-1.54%




CAC
4002
-0.37%
0.85%




DAX
7102
0.56%
-0.18%




NIKKEI
10360
0.83%
-2.14%




HANG SENG
23617
-1.08%
-1.67%




AUS
4774
0.39%
-0.95%




SHANGHAI
2752
1.36%
-2.72%




SENSEX
18395
-3.21%
0.77%




BOVESPA
66697
-3.52%
-2.54%




RUSSIA
7090
-0.79%
0.81%




JKSE
3487
3.19%
-5.32%




KOSPI
2107
-1.83%
-1.85%




STRAITS
3229
1.41%
-1.87%




THAI
981
-2.48%
-2.51%




ARGENTINA
3583
-1.78%
3.07%




S. AFRICA
31543
-1.85%
-1.59%



Last day it was the Egyptian unrest that made many market to fall, like US market which in spite of good GDP number fall from it’s 29 month highs. On the other side  due to rate hike problem, Indian markets have suffered huge losses. In spite of this rate hike tension Indonesian market worked quite well.



Other  markets


As better economic news were coming investors were shifting from safer assets to riskier assets but on the last day, the unrest in Egypt made lot of problem in this equation.


COMMODITY
28-Jan-11
21-28 JAN-11
14-21 JAN-11




GOLD (Feb)
1340
-0.07%
-1.39%




OIL  (Mar)
89.34
0.25%
-3.73%




COPPER (Mar)
437.3
1.48%
-2.33%


Copper surges on better news from US and other parts of the world.
Last day oil makes a higher move. Otherwise oil was correcting lot by breaking it’s support at 89.
Egyptian problem make lot of speculation about the oil because there was a tension that this unrest can move in other parts of the region and that can make problem with oil production and supply. So in coming week, there is a chance of more up movement in oil price from here.
Gold is making an long term correction as people are shifting into riskier assets.But investor started buying gold as the Egyptian news came. Other wise during this week people were selling gold as there were some news that in USA there is a chance of rise in interest rate. So it is quite natural people will select those high fixed rate interest instruments than gold.
Same story also for  US Treasuries.


YIELDs
28-Jan-11
21-28 JAN-11
14-21 JAN-11




2-Year Treasury
0.547
-10.62%
5.69%




5-Year Treasury
1.915
-4.77%
4.63%




10-Year Treasury
3.323
-2.37%
-2.43%




30-Year Treasury
4.528
-0.81%
0.81%


Long-term treasury yields are not decreasing much where as short-term yields are decreasing this is also a good signal about the recovery of the economy.

Currency

South Korean, Philippines and many other currencies made gains  this week on optimism of  economical growth which will bring more foreign investments in these countries.


CURRENCY
28-Jan-11
21-28 JAN-11
14-21 JAN-11




EURO
1.361
-0.07%
-1.71%




AUD
0.994
0.50%
0.10%




YEN
82.11
-0.54%
-0.33%




RUPEE
45.74
0.08%
0.88%




SWISS FRANC
0.942
-1.67%
-0.62%




S.African RAND
7.173
1.96%
1.69%




Brazilaian REAL
1.681
0.35%
-0.65%




Mexican PESO
12.2
1.21%
0.21%




Euro still couldn’t close above the 1.38 figure in fact last day it reduces much may be due to crisis in the gulf when everyone are trying to take shelter under US dollar.



Coming week

Australian index couldn’t able to close above 4800 level, for any up move from here it needs to close above that. On the downside it faces support at 4700 level.
Dowjones faced a correction in last day and it closes 11800 level where it’s important support exists. In this moment beating 13000 level looks far.
FTSE can face some more correction in coming week. 5850 level is crucial for it, if it breaks this it can easily go below 5800. on the up side it is 5950.
Looking at the previous week’s close I expected correction in KOSPI but it did not , in fact it again moving upward direction. It is facing resistance at 2120 level.
Russian market coulnot able to go for test the crucial 7220 level. as I was talking about the correction in previous week,  it is really due for it.
31500 level is very important for South African market in the downside, on the upside it is 32500. In January it has corrected to some extent but may be in future we can see another wave of correction on it.
In Thailand look like the index gets support at 960 than 990 as I was telling last week. Though last day’s figure was not good but it can make an up move from here.
Bovespa closed below its crucial support of 67000 this week. Next good support is at 65000 though before that it has to face some support at 66000. Things are following in such a fashion in some of the Emerging countries if it goes more down from here then I will not astonished.
For shanghai composite crucial support was at 2700 it gave close above that mark in fact it looks to me it is bouncing from this level unless something bad happen in coming week it will likely to carry it’s move.

Here I want to give a look on the movement of the Emerging market indexes in January-2011.


INDEX
01-28 JAN-2011


SHANGHAI
-0.25%


SENSEX
-10.30%


BOVESPA
3.76%


RUSSIA
5.67%


JKSE
5.83%


KOSPI
2.73%


THAI
-4.94%


S. AFRICA
-1.79%


In spite of pressure of rate hike Indonesian market not faced lot of correction like others. Where as Thailand and South African markets face some pressure in January 2011,  but it is the Indian market that face huge correction in this year. Actually it was long due.





But all this correction that is going on Indian market making it cheaper among  it’s peers. As such coming days will be good time for buy in Indian market especially those realty and infra stocks which are corrected more than the main index.

Next week consumer spending data , auto sales , unemployment reports, factory orders , job-reports and monthly job report  e.t.c are due from US market. Though rate has been hiked in India but in some other countries it is still due. In February there is also some bond selling due from Europe. New growing political incidents and inflation these may effect coming week’s markets.


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.




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