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Week ended 1/14/2011 -- Market this week

This week it will be a brief market review.

After a good bond sale report Euro gained nearly more than 3.5% this week again US$, but Japanese Yen appreciation against US$ makes them more weak in export market. Gold maintains it’s continued down ward movement this week. Oil this week again makes a upward move but in last two day it faces some sell off, as such it was unable to close above 92 this week.

Shanghai Composite is not showing any movement, unless it breaks 2850 in the up side and 2730 in the down side we cannot see any clear move of it’s. But chart pattern not looks good. As I was telling Nikkei is making non-stop movement but in last two day of the week it form same pattern like shanghai. Chinese reserve hike, effects much in the last day of the week. Talking about the last two days, Indonesian market is quite contrary to the above markets. But for any upward move it needs to carry on its move above 3550. Indian SENSEX is facing long correction from the beginning of the new year and it’s near by support is more on the downside.

Brazilian BOVESPA makes a clear up move in the new year but it needs to close above 72000 for any renewed move. It’s chart pattern looks like a Cup & Handle, let’s see where it moves from here. German DAX is finding resistance in 7100 level, it is now 3 times it is trying to test that level, but regional election and European weather may show its reflection on it. It’s neighbor FTSE perform quite well this week than others. Dow’s move looks to me very impressive it is making some strong moves. If some positive news come then it may break 12000 level in coming week.

Talking about news this week was full of good and bad news. Chinese reserve ratio increase, news about Moody’s and standard & Poor’s downgrade of US were some of the threats but biggest uncertainty was regarding European debt sale which at least went on quite well. There was a chance for Euro to fluctuate but Chinese statement of using their own reserve of Euro stops all the actions.

In coming days I think biggest threat will be rate hike from few countries to control inflation. Since I live in India, I am feeling the pressure of imminent rate hike in stock market, small investors are really scared about it. As I was reading somewhere that, EURO Zone inflation were also up in last December. JP Morgan’s profit and some good reports from US make it’s index gain in the last day, but I feel we may not see much of its reflection in Monday’s opening, we also need to look on Austrian and Brazilian natural disaster.

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

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DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
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