Beside stock markets different other markets gave spectacular results in year 2010. Since some stock markets are in over-bought zone many investors are diversifying their investments. let see some ---
Precious Metal & Crude at 2010
In 2010 many experts said much about gold some says Gold may be in bubble, some said that it may touch 2000 level. But up to now no one is proved to be correct.
This year Gold made substantial gain of almost 30%. Many European countries as well as
are facing huge economical problem, especially currency related problem and also fear of stock market crash compel many to choose Gold as a secure place to invest. In year 2010 many nations also bought lot of Gold form IMF. U.S.
Now with gold demand there will be Silver demand too. Silver up more than 80% this year, a new 30 year high. It seems to be that Silver will carry this move some more time in 2011.
Copper also gained nearly 30% in 2010 .Copper is in new all time high this year. The Chinese demand is one of the main cause for this year high as well as manufacturing is picking up in other parts like
U.S. and Europe. US$ weakness also plays it’s part this year for Copper’s price action. Except most other countries have low Copper inventories. So if in coming days economical recovery gathers strength we may see more price up for Copper. China
When talking about commodity one thing I must say Palladium which roses more than 90% this year, quite outstanding.
Crude oil’s gain was not substantial in year 2010 but looks like, it is going to break 100 this year 2011, unless the economic conditions become worse.
Currencies at 2010
Let see some currency movements in 2010.
interest rate was in very low level, investors were looking for better assets to invest. So there were and are a shift of investments and as a result U.S.$ was and is getting weaker against many other currencies. U.S.
Japanese yen is one of them which gain more than 14% this year. The problem is Yen has not appreciated because of some huge developments happen in
Japan, but rather it increase because afraid investor transferring their investment from Europe and USA in . As a result Japanese currency is gaining but it’s export is facing the problem, which ultimately effecting Japanese economy. Japan
Now every body talking about Swiss Franc Swiss franc which gain more than 10% this year against the US$. Actually Swiss Franc has risen against both
US$ and Euro from the beginning of financial crisis, I think it is consider as safe haven in Europe. few days ago Swiss Franc was all time high against Euro.
Aud gains nearly 14% this year again US$. It is the strongest performance of it’s life.
Dollar- Euro relation was little bit flat this year as both of them facing economical problems, so those clearly reflect on the Euro-Dollar value. Now one more member is added with Euro that is
. This inclusion is interesting for the fact that some experts were suspicion about Euro’s fate in future. Estonia
Chinese Govt allowed a limited currency appreciation after 2 year in mid-2010. But how much it costs to china is a matter that I should be looking in future.
Us treasury bonds at 2010
Beside Gold US Treasury to some extent may be consider as safe haven.
Though I don’t have details data, let see 10 year Treasury Yield chart.
It will be not good to compare the year end data because around Sep-Oct end Treasury yields were very low comparing to the 31st December yield figure. As yield and bond price move opposite direction, lot of holders of this treasuries made huge profits.
I think it will be wrong to invest more on U.S. Treasury because, I think the yields are going to increase in future lot. The important thing is sometime movements of USD is very much related with Treasuries, so individual should be careful about this. Not only
Govt. but others too made lot of profits by selling bonds at high prices. I will write on this later. U.S.
Coming year 2011 for Commodities & Treasuries
As Venezuelan minister told about oil’s price of $100, I think oil is surely moving in that direction if not more. The growing demands of Emerging nations and recovery that are going on in
U.S. and Europe may fuel it more. There is also a huge competition going on between the countries to secure oil fields from African countries. So all these leave us no place than increase in oil’s price. To a certain limit we also can relate this movement with stock market.
The boom period of some of the Metals will be there as long as there is need of them for fulfilling growing economical needs, especially the developments those are going on
and other Emerging nations. We also cannot forget that China and European nations are also recovering to a extent. I think unless the uncertainty related to Europe & U.S. reduces to a extent, their currency will be on pressure, even in 2011. So it will be very immature to predict the movements of Swiss Franc and AUD and others as short-term. U.S.
Now as there are uncertainty, the investments will move in Gold & other Precious Metal markets and to some extent in U.S.Treasuries and other Bond markets. If I have to choose now between Gold and Treasuries, I will go for more secure one. I think it will be better to decide this by individual himself ….
NOTE : Please see the disclaimer below this blog.