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Week ended 02/18/2011 -- Market this week

As I told in past that rating agencies make lot of problems in financial world, last week Chinese banking regulator’s manifestation for banks to less depend on these agencies is quite good step for general investors. I think if the matter of rating comes then there must be some Govt. rating agencies, whom we rely more than these private organizations. We cannot forget the performances of these private rating agencies in sub-prime loan crisis. Every govt. should banned these private rating organizations.

Again a reserve requirement hike by China to control inflation which is 4.9% in January. But not only in China, in coming days if UK cannot control it’s inflation which is 4% in January from 3.7% in last December has to increase it’s interest rate too.
Euro Zone economic growth was slightly weaker than expected. Some reduction proposals came in us budget plan for diminishing fiscal deficit, actually they really need to do that.



INDEX
18-Feb-11
11-Feb-18-Feb-11
4Feb-11Jan-2011




DOW
12391
0.96%
1.49%




FTSE
6082
0.32%
1.08%




CAC
4157
1.36%
1.33%




DAX
7426
0.74%
2.14%




NIKKEI
10842
2.23%
0.58%




HANG SENG
23595
3.35%
-4.51%




AUS
4936
1.14%
0.37%




SHANGHAI
2899
2.54%
1.03%




SENSEX
18211
2.72%
-1.55%




BOVESPA
68066
3.51%
0.74%




RUSSIA
6855
-1.45%
-4.31%




INDONESIA
3501
3.24%
-3%




KOSPI
2013
1.82%
-4.58%




STRAITS
3086
0.29%
-4.17%




THAI
995
4.84%
-3.55%




ARGENTINA
3537
2.22%
4.70%




S. AFRICA
32584
0.43%
-1.39%



Most Emerging market except countries like Russia faced some good pull backs from the low levels.
Russian market was overbought for long time now it has started to face some corrections, the spread between Russian and Thailand market was lot in this week.


Other Markets

Copper price is facing some corrections during last 2 weeks.



COMMODITY
18-Feb-11
11-Feb-18-Feb-11
4Feb-11Jan-2011




GOLD (Feb)
1388
2.13%
0.81%




OIL  (Mar)
86.2
0.72%
-3.87%




COPPER (Mar)
448
-1.23%
-0.94%



If political tension does not arise then I think Oil price may go down from here. As this week’s problem in Gulf countries and some rumors increase the price of oil. But if tension arises then it can again go into 92 level. Problem is Brent crude which rising fast . Last week’s oil figure was a printing mistake.
Silver is more than 30 years high position as it is getting more costlier day by day. I am thinking about those investors who has taken short position in the market they must be in deep water now.
Gold is going higher because of political problem and may be due to Chinese buying of gold due to rising inflation and currency appreciation making it better for some investors. During last 3weeks gold made a good upward movement so if problems do not arises we may see some correction on it.


YIELDs
18-Feb-11
11-Feb-18-Feb-11
4Feb-11Jan-2011




2-Year Treasury
0.811
-0.97%
9.93%




5-Year Treasury
2.341
-0.21%
3.80%




10-Year Treasury
3.64
-0.08%
0.27%




30-Year Treasury
4.715
-0.02%
-0.23%



Actually as uncertainty comes in the market gold and Treasury buying come into force so like gold there is also some Treasury buying came as a result of it Treasury yields drops from previous 2 week’s high figures.



CURRENCY
18-Feb-11
11-Feb-18-Feb-11
4Feb-11Jan-2011




EURO
1.369
1.03%
-0.14%




AUD
1.014
1.19%
-1.08%




YEN
83.15
-0.29%
1.50%




RUPEE
45.18
-1.26%
0.26%




SWISS FRANC
0.943
-2.98%
1.88%




S.African RAND
7.122
-1.31%
-0.20%




Brazilaian REAL
1.662
1.77%
-2.39%




Mexican PESO
12.02
-0.08%
0.41%




Euro can go little bit correction from here but I think further up move is due over medium to long term, but for that 1.38 is very crucial for it and 1.32 in the down side. Unless Yen breaks 84 it will be an headache for Japanese exporter. AUD is finding resistance in 1.02 on the upside.



Coming week

Dow, FTSE, CAC, DAX all are forming pattern like higher highs and higher lows. When the economy of US and UK are not doing well in spite of the fact there stock markets are doing quite lot. And if I see the charts though it is not completely clear yet but it makes me feel that in future after a pull back they will go far above from where they are now, far, very far.
Some reports like house price index, consumer confidence & sentiment data, existing & new home sales numbers, unemployment claims e.t.c are due in coming week from US.
Most of the Emerging markets except some like Russia, gained handsomely in this week . Now if it is a pullback rally then they can make further down side movement may be after some time. As inflation concern not completely out of the picture (like there is an expectation China may again hikes it’s rate in spit of increasing reserve requirement), but the matter is investors have already discounted it. But if foreign investors use it as a tool to escape from these markets then thing is quite different as they did in few days ago.
But again the question comes, where they will go ?




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

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