Import of inflation by most of the Emerging countries are spoiling the their markets all around the globe and this is causing some huge crash in some market like
, yes I am going to say it crash not correction. As I live in India I am seeing how much sentiments are effected by this crash. India
Now payroll data, looks like whole world was expecting some magic from it, but it brings some disappointment as it was not up to the mark.
not only costing them $310 million per day but it is effecting many other parts of the world and many other companies like Vodafone. So not only bad weather in Egypt and US but also there are many ingredients which effect stock markets this week. Australia
Developed markets are regaining its strength and some experts are saying that money is shifting from Emerging markets to developed markets on better economic news.
Dow Jones is making higher formation where Bovespa like other Emerging countries are making loss.
As I was telling about the shifting moneys, without Developed market there is another option that is quite open which is shifting moneys from big Emerging countries to small Emerging countries. I will consider Developed market when some better news will come from private employment rates and consumer spending, mortgage repayments and obviously the performance of medium level banks & housing data e.t.c. and you can’t judge on the basis of couple of months or 1 quarter data, these need to be a consistent for sometime. In this moment and not even in within couple of months there is any chance of betterment on these areas. And also there is some news that many people are not anymore looking for jobs as they are not finding that, so it will be wrong to predict that there is reduction in unemployment number. Though I don’t have much information but I think what is going on now that is based on Govt. subsidy or whatever you say. Consumer sentiment that is the area that needed to be improved .
One thing worried me about US that for last few months and years they are suffering from lot of problems, their sentiment is down, people are not taking any risk in spite of that stock market indexes are going up like rocket. So I have lot of doubts about this movement of indexes. What I think all this buyings are only coming from big banks, and if I am not wrong they are just using taxpayers money to make profit in stock market, retail participation may be quite low. I know many people will be in same opinion with me.
Oil made it’s up move may from last day of previous week but it is unable to pass 92. Tension in
may be a big factor for oil’s movement. Egypt
I think oil is in middle portion now, it can move either direction. In the up side if it brakes 92-93 range it can go higher, on the other side if it brakes 89 rang it can do the opposite.
and inflation is not effecting much in Gold’s value. If it makes a move above 1370 then it can change it’s behavior. Chinese demand of gold and silver may influence the behavior of them in coming days. In this moment silver is quite hotter than gold, as I was reading somewhere that Chinese are buying lot of silver. Egypt
AUD is again making it’s move but it will be wrong to say now that it will carry it’s move unless it crosses 1.026 at the top.
EURO is facing some correction , so in this moment 1.428 look far for it touch, as tension increasing around the world Euro is facing some correction. Things could change if there is change in interest rate in EU areas.
This week all the Treasury yields have increased, improvement in equity market may be the cause. Increase in yields rate of 30-year treasury continues this week, it may again go for it’s last April high of 4.836%.
In this moment Dow Jones is just moving up and up, reports are not bad ,look like sell-off in Emerging markets are bringing new investments in US. It is overbought to some extent in this level but it has still more scope to go up from here. As things are shaping in different part of the world I will not be strange if some corrections happen here .
Nikkei is taking time to beat 10600 level. Last two weeks were positive for Japanese market in spite of that it is getting hard to beat the level.
FTSE , DAX & CAC all are facing some up move, look like investor are getting more confidence on these markets than Emerging markets.
As I was telling that KOSPI is facing resistance at 2120 level, this week it fell from that level and in lower level it is facing support at 2070 level. If things become good it can again go to test the 2120 level.
Thai index is moving around the range of 960-990 level. But if things get bad it can go down up to 920 level though in 940 level it can get some minor support.
Indonesian market is making lower top and bottom like many other markets. For any substantial move in upside it needs to break 3550 level. In
rate was raised in Friday by 0.25% to 6.75% let see in coming week how it effects their market. Indonesia
Russian market crossed the level of 7220.
is quite decoupling from other Emerging markets . There is option for it to go more but next week is very crucial for it to test the higher levels. Russia
Let see Emerging market indexes in 2011.
What I think if in coming week things go this way then we may see some long-term effect of it in Indian investor’s mind. As all around the corner there is a noise that more are coming, so people are not believing any improvements in recent times as oil price also heading high. Specially when the saving bank accounts are paying more than average rate, as rates are increased by most banks. So in this circumstances that person will be a fool who is going to take the risk in stock market than not investing in saving bank accounts where the rates are so high than normal time.
What I am thinking here that if in this position some correction happens in
US index for some days then what will be it’s effect in countries like India, Thailand, brazil and , as we can’t forget the fact that in US the index is also in very high level. Indonesia
In this moment I think oil’s price is going to be a deciding factor. It will be very immature to think that oil price is going to effect only Emerging countries because we can’t forget that EU is also facing inflation. And if I am not wrong in US , there is an election due in next year. So it can be a cause of concern for Obama if oil price increases like this.
What worried me in this time is the redemption pressure those are coming to some of the Emerging market funds as such lot of moneys are withdrawing from these fund and this may be one of the cause of these sell-off that is going on in some Emerging countries.
Next week some big reports are due from US, like chain store sales, unemployment claim, consummer sentiment and US trade deficit e.t.c. These reports can indicate the future movements of stock market.
Correction or crash whatever it is, it does not matter, some stocks are now available in some Emerging countries at very cheap price, so for aggressive investor this may be a good time to buy.
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