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Week ended 03/04/2011 -- Market this week .


Markets are not getting down much but the problems are creating such an environment that everybody is expecting market will be crashing tomorrow. Some are seeing this Egyptian & Libyan crisis are just beginning, story is some where else.
So if political situations go this way we not only see the real story but we can also see the stock indexes at 2003 level. Because now Euro zone problem is again rising. Borrowing cost in Portugal is getting too high and some experts are feeling that Portugal is going with the same situation which Ireland & Greece had to go before they were bail out. Though some are saying that Spain is handling the matter quite well and it may come out from this situation. But there is too much expectation of rising interest rate in euro zone, and the situation in UK is not improving.
On the other part of the world there is same inflation story and rate hike problem, but as I told in previous week that investors are not much worried about it.




INDEX
4-Mar-11
25-Feb-4-Mar-11
18-Feb-25-Feb-11




DOW
12169
0.32%
-2.10%




FTSE
5990
-0.18%
-1.33%




CAC
4020
-1.22%
-2.09%




DAX
7178
-0.09%
-3.24%




NIKKEI
10693
1.58%
-2.91%




HANG SENG
23408
1.72%
-2.47%




AUS
4864
0.02%
-1.47%




SHANGHAI
2942
2.22%
-0.72%




SENSEX
18486
4.44%
-2.80%




BOVESPA
68012
1.66%
-1.71%




RUSSIA
7209
0.98%
4.14%




INDONESIA
3542
2.87%
-1.65%




KOSPI
2004
2.09%
-2.48%




STRAITS
3061
1.19%
-1.97%




THAI
995
1.01%
-1.00%




ARGENTINA
3467
0.93%
-2.88%




S. AFRICA
32337
2.55%
-3.23%




European markets are in little bit of pressure as looming rate hike and with the situation in countries like Portugal and UK. All the markets which has corrected face some pullbacks this week. Indian market was quite better than others.
As such Indian market has corrected lot this year, but investor are expecting more correction in these markets. But for aggressive traders this is good spot to enter. On the other hand correction in indexes like CAC will provide opportunities for other to enter.


Other markets

As it looks to me that Copper price can go down from here may be after some days, but as predicted that China’s Copper demand may expand this year so good days may be laying ahead. Investment is heading for safer options like gold, Swiss franc.



COMMODITY
4-Mar-11
25-Feb-4-Mar-11
18-Feb-25-Feb-11




GOLD (Mar)
1428
1.42%
1.44%




OIL  (Apr)
104.42
6.68%
9.10%




COPPER (Apr)
447
0.52%
-0.94%



Gulf tension is creating huge revenue for Oil producing countries. It is now more than 2½ year high, Brent crude is more than $115. This oil price is making life hale for Emerging countries.
I was expecting little more profit booking at 100 level but since it was not much I do think that Oil can run even more from here if no solution comes in Gulf region.
Investment in precious metal is increasing even in this high price. Silver has touched more than 30-year high price, this is life time bull run of silver.
Gold has crossed $1425 level and in coming week if tension goes on it will go for more , may be it is gathering strength for another up move. People are taking shelter in precious metal whenever there are uncertainties in markets.



CURRENCY
4-Mar-11
25-Feb-4-Mar-11
18-Feb-25-Feb-11




EURO
1.398
1.67%
0.43%




AUD
1.014
-0.39%
0.39%




YEN
82.27
0.73%
-1.77%




RUPEE
44.99
-0.83%
0.42%




SWISS FRANC
0.926
-0.11%
-1.69%




S.African RAND
6.855
-2.14%
-1.64%




Brazilaian REAL
1.654
-0.48%
0




Mexican PESO
11.99
-0.99%
0.74%



Ultimately after few months EURO breaks 1.38 level, now it’s next level is 1.42, this move of EURO is quite interesting in spite of expectation of rise in interest rate.  Japanese yen was little bit flattish this week except the Thursday when it made the up move. On the other hand 1.02 is working as a good resistance for AUD.




YIELDs
4-Mar-11
25-Feb-4-Mar-11
18-Feb-25-Feb-11




2-Year Treasury
0.687
-4.31%
-11.46%




5-Year Treasury
2.188
1.15%
-7.60%




10-Year Treasury
3.494
2.34%
-6.20%




30-Year Treasury
4.6
2.29%
-4.62%



Treasury yields make the gain from earlier week but in Thursday they again fall from the top that they made this week. I was expecting some decrease in treasure yields since political problem is not solving, but bull run in stock market is negating all those expectation, and also some economic news such as jobless rate.



Coming week

Most of the indexes are positive but some are saying that this is just cool-off rally so ultimate destination of these indexes are downward. As political and economical situations are going on,  they may be true.

But how much down !   As I am seeing that before this pullback there were not much buyers and sellers in the market. Because buyers are expecting that price can be more down from here so they are not purchasing on the other side investor are not selling because they are already in deep loss, so selling here will not improve their situation in spite of those looming threats.

What I am thinking that will these foreign funds and institutes are going to sell in these level because some huge investments are made by them on higher levels of  year 2010. So I do not think they are going to do losses by selling now, but obviously there is a chance of averaging.
It is sure some markets like Dow, Dax e.t.c. they need some correction but what will be the effect on other markets in that time because they are already corrected much.

Reports those are due in us in coming week are  Consumer credit. Wholesale trade, Unemployment claim, US Trade Deficit, Retail sale and Consumer sentiment  data.

Fed will buy $600 billion, up to now it bought $397.6 billion, next week it will buy more than $22 billion. I am very anxious to see where these moneys will  be going. I am expecting some rough days in coming week.

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.



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