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Week ended 11th-March-2011 -- Market this week .

Looking at the bad intentions of people as what is happening in gulf region our Nature mother is also revenging us by creating this huge earth quake and tsunami in Japan. Look like nature is trying to say us be a good human by leaving cruel intentions, concentrate your own work and don’t interfere in other’s work, let others to decide what they want.

Again these rating agencies are creating panic about European debt problem. Moody’s this week downgrade Spain’s debt and cut Greece rating suspecting debt default. Though Greece’s increasing Credit default swap & rising yield of Portuguese and Ireland’s bond are matter of concern but situation are not so panic as they are again trying to create. I think someday will come when people are going to overlook these agencies. This week Euro leaders have increased the power of their Rescue Fund by enabling it to buy the primary market debt, this may help them to some extent.



INDEX
11th-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011
25-Feb-4-Mar-11




DOW
12044
-1.02%
0.32%




FTSE
5828
-2.70%
-0.18%




CAC
3928
-2.28%
-1.22%




DAX
6981
-2.74%
-0.09%




NIKKEI
10254
-4.10%
1.58%




HANG SENG
23249
-0.67%
1.72%




AUS
4644
-4.52%
0.02%




SHANGHAI
2933
-0.30%
2.22%




SENSEX
18174
-1.68%
4.44%




BOVESPA
66684
-1.95%
1.66%




RUSSIA
6995
-2.96%
0.98%




INDONESIA
3542
0.00%
2.87%




KOSPI
1955
-2.44%
2.09%




STRAITS
3043
-0.58%
1.19%




THAI
1007
1.20%
1.01%




ARGENTINA
3403
-1.84%
0.93%




S. AFRICA
31173
-3.59%
2.55%



This week most of the markets were in negative territory and why shouldn’t be as there are many causes those are fueling this negative sentiment.



Market in Thailand is now facing two weeks of positive moves, where as renewed debt problems with other problems again fueling the European market to be in negative bias for two weeks.

Other markets were also more or less down this week.



COMMODITY
11th-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011
25-Feb-4-Mar-11




GOLD (Mar)
1421.5
-0.45%
1.42%




OIL  (Apr)
101.16
-3.12%
6.68%




COPPER (Apr)
420.5
-5.92%
0.52%



Shutdown happens in Oil refineries of Japan. Oil price has come down from its highs, as I was listening somewhere that the problem in Libya is decreasing gradually.




I have still doubt about this movement of Oil, as I was telling last day about the profit booking so these may be one of the cause of this decrease.  Since Libya is not big as Saudi Arabia in oil production so any bad news from Saudi Arabia could impact more in coming days.




I was expecting some large up move from Gold in last day but it was not the case and it even couldn’t able to pass earlier days move, but as I told in last week that it may gathering strength for any directional move from here.




CURRENCY
11th-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011
25-Feb-4-Mar-11




EURO
1.39
-0.57%
1.67%




AUD
1.015
0.09%
-0.39%




YEN
81.84
-0.52%
0.73%




RUPEE
45.21
0.48%
-0.83%




SWISS FRANC
0.928
0.21%
-0.11%




S.African RAND
6.87
0.21%
-2.14%




Brazilaian REAL
1.666
0.72%
-0.48%




Mexican PESO
11.89
-0.83%
-0.99%



Renewed Euro-area debt crisis may again create problem for Euro. In this moment 1.40 is looking a resistance for Euro and if uncertainty in Euro-zone goes on it may again comedown from here.



Earth quake and tsunami make Yen to appreciate again and in coming days it may test  lower level of 81.60 if not more from here. Once new infrastructure and constructional works  are going to start in effected areas we may see renewed demand of Yen and also the Insurance claims of the companies  are need to be taken into account for any future action of Yen.

Chinese & US trade deficits and increasing job benefits in US are some of the factors which are making investors to take shelter in the safety of Govt. Debts.



YIELDs
11th-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011
25-Feb-4-Mar-11




2-Year Treasury
0.644
-6.25%
-4.31%




5-Year Treasury
2.057
-5.98%
1.15%




10-Year Treasury
3.401
-2.66%
2.34%




30-Year Treasury
4.549
-1.10%
2.29%



The natural disaster in Japan is going to make their economy worse than earlier though Moody’s has different opinion about it. Japanese govt. bonds are rising with diminishing yields and in coming days we will see more of these. Actually bonds were already in increasing mode and this natural disaster makes it more vulnerable.



Coming week

For Dow Jones 11800 is acting as a good support but if uncertainty goes on then it will try the low of around 11000, on the up side unless it brakes the 12400 level convincingly, a solid move cannot start from here to test previous higher levels. FTSE, CAC and DAX all have made quite similar position like Dow.
Thailand Kospi and Indonesia have similar positions where as India and Brazil is look like similar to certain matters.

Some important Reports those are due from US ----

Tuesday – Housing  market index  
Wednesday – Producer price index, Housing starts.
Thursday – Unemployment claim, Consumer price index, Industrial production.


Bank of Korea has increased it’s interest rate, now twice in this year & in India, the factory output rises more than expected and that gives more opportunity to Reserve Bank of India to increase the interest rate. As I told in past that these Oil price increase and Interest rate hikes are not going to effect stock markets much because its are already discounted in the stock prices and these matters are also improving to some extent like Chinese inflation in February is unchanged e.t.c. While Germany’s drop in export and $7.3 billion trade deficit in China in February are matter of concern. But bigger matter of concern in coming week can be  problem in Saudi Arabia and reactions from Japan in regard of loss of human lives, financial damages as well as constructional damages. I was reading somewhere that their nuclear reactors are in trouble, this can create a huge problem than others.

I wonder that, what will be the sentiment of the investors in stock markets around the world in Monday !



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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