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Week ended 18th March-2011 -- Market this week .

Lot of moneys have injected by bank of Japan to calm the post disaster situation and to control the price of the Yen. Now G-7 countries are talking about the intervention in foreign exchange market.

India raises it’s interest rate & China raises reserve requirement for the 3rd time in this year to control inflation. Actually there is no other way, we have to live with this high interest and inflation rate and may we can hope there will be some improvements in our calorie intake and situation around gulf region.

Somewhere I read that south Korea’s jobless figure rises to 4% this year, I think they do not have to worry much some of the orders which were heading for Japan may find  new destination in their country. But UK’s unemployment figure of 27000 increase in  3 months ended January is a matter of concern in fact deep concern because it is highest since 1994.
This week one downgrade came from Moody’s which down grade Portugal’s sovereign debt ratings.




INDEX
18th-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011




DOW
11858
-1.54%
-1.02%




FTSE
5718
-1.88%
-2.70%




CAC
3810
-3.00%
-2.28%




DAX
6664
-4.54%
-2.74%




NIKKEI
9206
-10.22%
-4.10%




HANG SENG
22300
-4.08%
-0.67%




AUS
4626
-0.38%
-4.52%




SHANGHAI
2906
-0.92%
-0.30%




SENSEX
17878
-1.62%
-1.68%




BOVESPA
66879
0.29%
-1.95%




RUSSIA
7093
1.40%
-2.96%




INDONESIA
3494
-1.35%
0.00%




KOSPI
1981
1.32%
-2.44%




STRAITS
2935
-3.54%
-0.58%




THAI
1003
-0.39%
1.20%




ARGENTINA
3277
-3.70%
-1.84%




S. AFRICA
30922
-0.80%
-3.59%



Nikkei corrected lot, though it is the effect of natural disaster but even if there is no natural disaster it is due for correction because it was in overbought territory like  FTSE, CAC & DAX.

Many of the Emerging nations were in positive side this week, though countries which saw use of anti-inflationary weapon they are in negative territory, like India and China. Nikkei has regain much from it’s low point this week.




Other markets

Copper made a huge gain this week on the expectation of renewed industrial & constructional works.



COMMODITY
18th-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011




GOLD (Mar)
1415
-0.45%
-0.45%




OIL  (Apr)
101.07
-0.08%
-3.12%




COPPER (Apr)
433.05
2.98%
-5.92%



Japanese disaster help to reduce the price of the oil much this week but news of Bahrain problem later this week again fueling it’s price.
Though last day it came down from it’s highs. Look like oil is following the trend line, but if tension reduces we may see a change in the trend line. But at this moment tension in the gulf region are not going to stop as the resolution in security council against Libya may escalate the tension, I am thinking if this type resolution again passed against the Bahrain Govt. & Saudi Arabia then we may see Brent crude at much higher range.
Gold is not showing any clear directional move. Last day it made a gap-up move, but I am not bullish according to this gap-up move as I was not very bearish about the gap down move which it made few days ago.



CURRENCY
18th-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011




EURO
1.418
2.01%
-0.57%




AUD
0.996
-1.87%
0.09%




YEN
80.55
-1.57%
-0.52%




RUPEE
45.09
-0.26%
0.48%




SWISS FRANC
0.903
-2.69%
0.21%




S.African RAND
6.986
1.68%
0.21%




Brazilaian REAL
1.67
0.24%
0.72%




Mexican PESO
12.04
1.26%
-0.83%





Euro made a big jump in the last two days, it will be very interesting to see if it can break it’s recent high of 1.428 on the up side.
Due to natural disaster Yen was appreciating lot in last couple of days but in the last day it again depreciated much after G-7 declaration. Movement of  Swiss Franc is quite different, it appreciated during last few days even after some better news in last two days it has not regain much.



YIELDs
18th-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011
4th-Mar-11-Mar-2011




2-Year Treasury
0.595
-7.60%
-6.25%




5-Year Treasury
1.943
-5.54%
-5.98%




10-Year Treasury
3.273
-3.76%
-2.66%




30-Year Treasury
4.42
-2.83%
-1.10%



Before easing of problem in Japan  many investors were looking for Treasury but in last two days yields again start to go up as demand for Treasury becomes weak from it’s earlier days. Japanese bond posted some huge gain this week, as such many are taking shelter under this.



Coming Week


European stock indexes have corrected much from others though FTSE has not corrected like others but may be it’s time will be due when rate will be hiked in UK in coming days. The unemployment data from UK was really bad, it’s  rising CPI was also a cause of concern.
Japan is not going to come-out from this disaster easily. I mean from both human and financial losses. Japan is already suffering lot and this disaster makes them worst. Though some positive manifestation comes from G-7 but how long they can be such co-operative is a big question!
Trading on Indian market I do have a feeling that though foreign institutes have started the selling this year but now in the later period they are not selling. The matter is they are creating the initial panic and the domestic especially the retail and high net worth individuals are becoming the victim of that. In fact foreign institutions are net buyer in this year.  So it is the time to be cautious.


Reports due from US   ---

Monday  -- Existing home sales

Wednesday – New Home Sales

Thursday – Unemployment claims

Friday – 4th quarter GDP, final revision


Some important reports are due in coming week, markets may get some trigger from these. Around 11550 was a crucial level for Dow and if it can carry the move above that in coming days then we may see some good days ahead.




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog

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