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Week ended 25th March -- Market this week .


Portugal prime minister's resignation made easy to reach them in front of bail out package like Greece and Ireland. There main 5 opposition parties probably could give him a chance to pass the austerity budget. But who wants to give up chance, everyone is hungry for power and show their muscles.  Now this showing of power is not only to gain political positions but also what is going on in Middle East & North Africa,  Politics for Oil. In past, many times we saw this true ugly picture of some human figures. Seeing this, sometime I cannot differentiate between the wild animales of Africa and so called our educated modern human society. Shame on us.

Not only US but also country like Hong Kong, Singapore and Australia stop the shipment from disaster area of Japan.Though Japan’s export for February saw an increase of 9%. But I do not think things are going to turn their economy so easily. Japanese people have to suffer more in coming days but as they are popular for, they are going to come out from this problem as they have proved in past, it may take time but ultimately they are going to.

Inflation is still haunting countries, Vietnam inflation figure goes to highest figure at 13.9% year on year increase in march, this is highest in almost 2 years. Last month’s devaluation of country’s currency is one of the cause of increase in prices.



INDEX
25th-Mar-2011
18th-Mar-25-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011




DOW
12220
3.05%
-1.54%




FTSE
5900
3.18%
-1.88%




CAC
3972
4.25%
-3.00%




DAX
6946
4.23%
-4.54%




NIKKEI
9536
3.58%
-10.22%




HANG SENG
23158
3.84%
-4.08%




AUS
4742
2.50%
-0.38%




SHANGHAI
2977
2.44%
-0.92%




SENSEX
18815
5.24%
-1.62%




BOVESPA
67765
1.32%
0.29%




RUSSIA
7304
2.97%
1.40%




INDONESIA
3607
3.23%
-1.35%




KOSPI
2054
3.68%
1.32%




STRAITS
3070
4.59%
-3.54%




THAI
1037
3.38%
-0.39%




ARGENTINA
3348
2.16%
-3.70%




S. AFRICA
31509
1.89%
-0.80%



Euro leaders have agreed about the restructuring of the rescue fund but things will be more complicated if  UK is forced by others to contribute in this fund. Some better jobless data from US, but I don’t  think that many are going to depend much on this figures. This week all the major indexes were in positive territory, this is due as in previous week we saw lot of corrections.

European stocks rises biggest in last 6 months, on the expectation of better economic news from around the world. Though I expected some more down fall of DAX  index but it takes the earlier support. Malaysian index is quite interesting, it broke the channel and now may be heading for a pattern. Coming days will prove whether it makes the pattern or not.


Other Markets




COMMODITY
25th-Mar-2011
18th-Mar-25-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011




GOLD (Mar)
1426
0.77%
-0.45%




OIL  (May)
105.4
3.48%
-0.08%




COPPER (Apr)
441
1.83%
2.98%



Tension in Gulf region helps to fuel the price of Oil this week too. But it is unable to close above the  106.
For any up move in oil price Oil need to close above 107. But as situations are fluctuating in the Gulf region it is hard to say now which way oil will be going from here , especially the Brent crude. Though there is chance of going upward from here as look like in the chart.
Around 1440 level Gold is facing some resistance, unless it closes above that level it is very immature to think about higher prices. But like Treasuries, Gold can also come down from even these level. If situations improve from here Gold may test below 1400 level, there is a big chance of that.
Though EURO made high at 1.425 in the early days of this week but it couldn’t  go past that level during this week, where it’s recent high was 1.428. AUD goes to a new recent high of 1.03 in the last day, in coming days we will see whether it can sustain in this level. This week it was a little flat movement for Yen.



CURRENCY
25th-Mar-2011
18th-Mar-25-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011




EURO
1.408
-0.70%
2.01%




AUD
1.026
3.01%
-1.87%




YEN
81.32
0.95%
-1.57%




RUPEE
44.65
-0.97%
-0.26%




SWISS FRANC
0.914
1.21%
-2.69%




S.African RAND
6.84
-2.08%
1.68%




Brazilaian REAL
1.65
-1.19%
0.24%




Mexican PESO
11.98
-0.49%
1.26%



Philippine  increased their benchmark borrowing rate by 0.25% to 4.25%, this is the first increase in more than  2 years.


Treasury yields are working on leverage, after last week’s fall short-term treasury yields increase lot this week as such demand for security decreases as stock market doing well.


Tr. YIELDs
25th-Mar-2011
18th-Mar-25-Mar-2011
11th-Mar-18-Mar-2011




2-Year Treasury
0.738
24.03%
-7.60%




5-Year Treasury
2.155
10.91%
-5.54%




10-Year Treasury
3.435
4.94%
-3.76%




30-Year Treasury
4.498
1.76%
-2.83%



All the treasury yields have increased this week to a 2 weeks high. Fed bought $29.4 billion govt. debt this week which is a part of the $600 billion programmed debt buying to support the economy by keeping the borrowing cost low.



Coming week

Most of the markets were positive this week after the corrections last week. Political tension and Japan is going to be deciding factor in coming week. Though some better measures came from Spain but Portugal is still cause of concern not only for Germany but for all the major stock markets.  Dow gets a good support around 11500 level and for the short-term it looks positive.


Some Reports those are pending in coming week.

Monday – Pending home sales

Tuesday – Consumer confidence

Wednesday – ADP  job reports

Thursday – Unemployment claim, Factory order.

Friday – Monthly Employment report, Unemployment rate,  ISM Mfg index, Auto Sales, Construction Spending.



In coming week Auto companies may suffer some loss as global auto companies may lose production of 600,000 vehicles by the end of this month due to supply disruption from Japan.

Nikkei gets some initial support at around 8500 level but this week it remain a little bit flat , that’s a cause of concern. Unless it breaks  9800 level it is very early to say that Nikkei starts a new run. In this moment some support may come from China but it’s Shanghai index is getting resistance in 3000 level.

So ultimately I think direction is going to come from Dow Jones, it ends the week positively and we may expect some positive opening in Monday and the remaining will be determined by above mentioned other forces.




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.



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