Skip to main content

Week ended 15th April, 2011 – Currencies this week .

This week foreign investors have sold more shares in South Korea than they bought, as such the Korean currency declines much this week. Inflation is a bigger problem in Korea in spite of that Bank of Korea left interest rate unchanged in this week.



CURRENCY
15th-Apr-2011
4/8/2011-4/15/2011
4/1/2011-4/8/2011




EURO
1.443
-0.34%
1.75%
AUD
1.057
0.00%
1.83%
YEN
83.11
-1.92%
0.82%
RUPEE
44.52
1.08%
-1.36%
SWISS FRANC
0.896
-1.64%
-1.83%
S.African RAND
6.791
2.39%
-0.86%
Brazilian REAL
1.577
0.50%
-1.93%
Mexican PESO
11.654
-0.55%
-0.93%


Moody’s cut Ireland for it’s both local and foreign currency debt as it fail to cut it’s budgetary deficit. Many are expecting that in spite of bailing out Greece is going to default in it’s payment. This week Euro was in pressure due to this cause.


But lower economic growth and higher wages are the main problem for Portugal & they have also the limitation when thinking about raising taxes. So things are very hard for Portuguese authority to make much improvements. On the whole , what I think about Euro Area is, the problem what they are facing is not something which suddenly appears. So it will take time to recover from this debt infection or whatever they are facing.


Currency in coming week

Swiss Franc made some up movement in the last day of the week, it is very much needed. It is making some lower tops and lower bottoms for long. Now it is to look at that whether it can  past the 0.93 resistance mark.
1.45 is acting as a good resistance for EURO. If it breaks this level then we can expect it’s move toward 1.50 level but last day’s move was quite disappointing.

AUD is getting a resistance around 1.058, last 3 days move was very positive and if things go this way it will easily cross this resistance in coming week. 83 is working as a good support for YEN. In coming days if it breaks it then we may see further low on it may be around 81.5 level.
Mexican PESO is in the level from where it can go in further lows, may be around 2008 level.
Brazilian REAL is heading towards it’s life low, so why shouldn’t it be the headache of the Brazilian Government. This week it tried to go past 1.59 level but it couldn’t able to carry it’s move.
The move of South African RAND this week is quite quick but it couldn’t beat the 4.8 level convincingly so it is again going to test this level. Unless it beats this  6.8-6.9  level it will be wrong to predict any positive up move from here.
USD fell to a record low of 74.61 the lowest level since 2007. Things those are going on in US is quite hard to understand.
These days most of the Emerging market currencies are appreciating, as such more foreign inflows are coming in these countries. That is making their export more uncompetitive comparing to the others. When thinking about currency appreciation  a good example of that is Brazil. But these countries need to look at fiscal and other instruments to tackle these things. Sometime I think if these huge inflows of moneys go into constructional work then they may get some benefit, may be in long-term !




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

Economical problems are always better option for market than Political problems.

Traders around the world were in better condition in past when market was ruled by European debt crisis (PIIGs) than now when market is facing a situation in gulf region & related refuge problem. Not only European debt crisis is more connected with economics but its effects have created more panic in the market. As a trader in the equity market always I am looking for more volatility in the market & that is better when matter is more connected with economics, obviously this question will not come if it is a world war or something like that.
In coming days market is expecting high volatility in response of Brexit & Fed’s rate hike but as matters are progressing I feel that it may not create that much what media are highlighting. Especially when Britain’s exit may not be sure as we are seeing in different news, I think it may be going to effect their currency too. On the other hand today or tomorrow Fed is going to hike the rate so question may come about their timing.
A new …