Skip to main content

Week ended 1st April, 2011 – Currencies this week

Due to higher interest rate overseas investors are putting their money on those places where interest rate is higher . Countries such as South Korea , India , Indonesia and Philippines have tightening their policy rates  due to inflation . Malaysia’s Ringgit is in the strongest level as foreign investors raise holding of  local currency debt to a record level , and still it is going strong  .  Not only in Malaysia but places like China , Indonesia also see appreciation in their currencies .

3/25/11 - 4/1/11
3/18/11 - 3/25/11
3/11/11 - 3/18/11






S.African RAND

Brazilaian REAL

Mexican PESO

It is interesting that though US$ depreciated this week against the  EURO , YEN , SWISS FRANC but for other currencies especially the currencies like  Mexican PESO , Brazilian REAL , South African RAND , it appreciates , in fact  Mexican peso strengthened for 5th consecutive day . On the other hand Brazilian REAL has gained 45% against the US$ in last 2 years . Though Brazilian government is trying to control their currency appreciation as it is making their export more uncompetitive , but things are not coming under their control .

AUD’s up move was good this week , as such the move was very strong . It is very hard right now to predict it’s move as it is breaking all the boundaries .

If  YEN crosses the initial resistance of 84.5 then it will be testing the level of 86 . But I think once the money starts to come in Japan , may be for constructional work ,  it will definitely move downwards . In this moment the G-7 factor may be working .

US$  could not able to move same way against EURO in the last day as it moves against the Swiss Franc and YEN . Actually Euro Area is facing the threat of rising interest rate &  now some manifestation from some FED officials made  US$ also vulnerable for that . $1.43 is still acting as a resistance for EURO and in coming days it will be the testing time .

On the other hand EURO-YEN rate roses to more than 119 . Though during couple of week this gap has reduces but I think in long run it will ultimately increase , unless suddenly  matters deteriorates in Europe . But there has a German factor in Europe which is missing in Japan .

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.