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Week ended 1st April , 2011 – Market this week .


Chinese manufacturing data in march was encouraging which helps the other Asian market’s rally in Friday .
Consumer spending in US has increased in February where as single family home price fell in January and this is  fall  7th month in a row . Unemployment  rate fell into a new 2-years low in march to 8.8% in march from 8.9%  . Private sector employment increases but I think that the better news is half of it comes from small business .
Rating agency  Standard & Poor’s downgraded  Portugal and Greece , citing fear about their debt . Thing I do not understand that why this rating agencies are silent about the other big boys . Actually eveyone fears big fishes and comfotable with smaller one  !   After more than a year , unemployment rate falls in Euro-Area to 9.9% in February . Uk’s GDP fell by 0.5% in last quarter of 2010 ,  they are saying this is due to  bad weather , I think we are going to test it in future . Where there is some better news from Ireland , as their manufacturing activity fell  less in march than February . PMI for march fell to just 55.7 in march than 56.7 in February . Problem probably is in their banking sector , as it needed 24 billion Euros to survive the financial crisis .

Food inflation decreases in India to 9.5% as lesser vegetable price . Where as Euro Zone inflation rate increases 2.6% from 2.4% in February . South Korea is facing increase in their consumer price index  by 4.7%  in march , which is 29 month high . South Korean inflation is higher than their comfort zone of 4% . Though inflation is in higher note but Central Bank is not going to increase their interest rate as they can increase it at any time because it has the cushion of export growth . Export for the month is $ 48.6 billion compared to $ 45.5 billion  worth of import .

Though for Russia there is not much increase in export demand but domestic demand has picked up which helping the manufacturing growth and which in turn helping employment situations . Manufacturing expanded in march at one of the fastest space since 2006  in Russia .



INDEX
1st-Apr-2011
25th-Mar-1st-Apr-2011
18th-Mar-25-Mar-2011




DOW
12376
1.27%
3.05%




FTSE
6009
1.84%
3.18%




CAC
4054
2.06%
4.25%




DAX
7179
3.35%
4.23%




NIKKEI
9708
1.80%
3.58%




HANG SENG
23801
2.77%
3.84%




AUS
4861
2.50%
2.50%




SHANGHAI
2967
-0.33%
2.44%




SENSEX
19420
3.21%
5.24%




BOVESPA
69268
2.21%
1.32%




RUSSIA
7480
2.40%
2.97%




INDONESIA
3707
2.77%
3.23%




KOSPI
2121
3.26%
3.68%




STRAITS
3120
1.62%
4.59%




THAI
1064
2.60%
3.38%




ARGENTINA
3471
3.67%
2.16%




S. AFRICA
32302
2.51%
1.89%



Most of the markets are in positive territory this week in fact some of the markets gained around 2%-3% this week . Russia is performing quite better from others . Overall major Emerging markets perform better from Developed markets this week .

As I told last day that it could be better if DAX corrected little more , but it’s performance disappoints me . So things in DAX & Russian index are need to be watched  . On the other hand Chinese index is not performing up to the mark . I expect more from it , may be similar like Indian market .




Oil & Metal this week

For Silver I think it may face some correction in coming days , as such we may see it around 36-36.50  level . But as things are going look like it is hard to reach there .  Other markets were mix this week .


COMMODITY
1st-Apr-2011
3/25/11 - 4/1/11
3/18/11 - 3/25/11
3/11/11 - 3/18/11





GOLD (Mar)
1428.4
0.10%
0.77%
-0.45%





SILVER (May)
37.73
1.83%
5.67%
-2.44%





COPPER (Apr)
425.85
-3.63%
1.83%
2.98%





Oil (May)
107.94
2.40%
3.48%
-0.08%




At last some relief is coming for those persons and countries , as Libyan rebels have signed oil contracts with Qatar to export oil from their area . But I think it is going to be not good for those companies which will be taking the insurance of those tankers which will take the oil out of Libya .
Brent crude is facing some resistance in the upside . But as matter is going on that part of the world things can change in a minute .
As I was expecting some up move , this week it closes above 107 and I am expecting still some up move from here . Chart is not showing any pattern but looks to me it is in the way of building that pattern .

Look like after  a bull-run it is the time to face some corrections as Copper is making lower tops and lower bottoms .  I think right now it has a support at around 410-415 , now if it breaks it then it can go further down .
As I predicted that unless Gold breaks the 1440 level it is hard to think about the new up move from here . In fact it tests the lower levels . So in coming days if it breaks the 1410 level it may go further lower levels . But I will be looking for an up move from here .




Coming week

I was looking at different indexes , what I think most of these indexes are facing some upward resistance .  Now in coming days if they able to make some good moves above this level then it will be good for market , but better will be if there is some correction in coming week .

Reports due this week

Tuesday, 5th April  2011 – ISM non-mfg index .

Wednesday, 6th April 2011 – Oil inventories .

Thursday, 7th April 2011 – Unemployment claims .

Friday, 8th April 2011 – Wholesale Trade .


Housing sector in US , that started this disaster so  unless some better news are coming from that sector I do not think employment reports hold much value . Anyway if employment increases that means purchasing power is increasing and that ultimately is going to improve the housing sector .

I want to give some stats , Foreign institutes are net purchaser of south Korean shares for 12th consecutive days , this is the longest run of this year  &  they are also net purchaser in India up to now in 2011 .  So things are not so bad as we read and hear .  MSCI Asia-pacific climbed 0.8% this week , which also reflect many things .

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