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Week ended 22nd April,2011 – Markets this week .



Let see the markets this week –

INDEX
22th-Apr-2011
4/15/2011-4/22/2011
4/8/2011-4/15/2011




DOW
12505
1.32%
-0.31%
FTSE
6018
0.36%
-0.97%
CAC
4021
1.18%
-2.14%
DAX
7295
1.62%
-0.54%
NIKKEI
9682
0.94%
-1.81%
HANG SENG
24138
0.54%
-1.59%
AUS
4913
1.25%
-1.78%
SHANGHAI
3010
-1.31%
0.66%
SENSEX
19602
1.11%
-0.33%
BOVESPA
67058
0.56%
-2.95%
RUSSIA
7257.11
1.10%
-3.88%
INDONESIA
3801
1.90%
-0.29%
KOSPI
2197
2.66%
0.61%
STRAITS
3194
1.30%
-1.06%
THAI
1105
1.93%
0.18%
ARGENTINA
3413
0.94%
-2.84%
S. AFRICA
32658
0.71%
-0.63%

S&P and never ending inflation fever helped to correct the markets around the world , but most of them closed positively this week .  Shanghai composite is feeling some pressure due to inflation and expectation of hike in interest rate .Some are expecting that Chinese government will allow to appreciate it’s currency for controlling inflation . Interest sensitive sectors were suffering much this week in different Emerging countries . Japanese market was effected by the strength in Yen . Kospi has also performed well this week .





Oil & Metal  Markets this week

Most of the commodities were positive this week .

COMMODITY
22th-Apr-2011
4/15/2011- 4/22/2011
4/8/2011- 4/15/2011




Nymex  (June)
112.29
1.87%
-2.77%
Brent Crude (June)
123.99
0.43%
-2.11%
Natural Gas  (June)
4.466
4.73%
3.82%
Gold (June)
1503
1.14%
0.81%
Silver (June)
46.07
8.19%
4.82%
Copper (June)
441
3.31%
-5.37%


As I was telling last week that Oil is not moving on fundamental basis so speculating activities can take it much in the up side . Brent Crude is  trading in the range of 126 to 120 .
As I said that 106 is acting as a support for Oil ( Nymex ) , it looks to me that it is trading in a channel . On the upside if it breaks 114 then it can go further up . Unless it breaks this 106–114 level , it is hard to look for any new short-term trend . But any bad political news from Gulf and North Africa can help to fuel it’s price . As we are watching that most of the countries are finding it hard to adjust themselves with this high oil prices .
A weaker US$ is boosting the Gold & Silver prices , because it is making them cheaper to buyers of other countries . Up to few days ago Silver was beating the Gold .

But now things may be changing as many investors are not sure about the future up movement of Silver from here . So many are taking covers in the derivatives market . Over past 60 trading days , Silver price rises nearly 60% . Now correction can occurs at any time but it does not mean that bull rally for silver is over , it may be corrective rally . But all things will be determined by the time and with the surroundings . Though some experts still want to see Silver at $50 , technically they may not be wrong .

Gold at is getting very short-term support at 1490 level , I think it may face some corrections from here .  But we cannot forget that Gold rises to a record level after gaining for 5th  week in a row . Weaker US$ and concern over debt makes it a good alternative .
Investors around the world are so nervous that many of them are taking shelter under Gold , some are shifting money from other sectors to Gold . It is interesting to see that in spite of rate hike by ECB and other Emerging market , Gold’s price is increasing . But I will be keen to see this movement of Gold after the June July period when there will not be much demand from India .
I said last week that copper is due for an up move . Now if it breaks 444 level then it may be heading for 454 level . Though I am not sure about that move now , because geo-political & economical situations do not permit it . But it is in the way of making a pattern .


Coming week

Dow broke it’s initial resistance of 12400 this week , that was good but it couldn’t hold up  much of it’s gain . Coming week will be very interesting to see where it goes from here . I will be sure about it’s fresh up move if it breaks 12800 , which looks far now .

As I said in many of my early postings that Dow’s movement does not reflect the true picture . Though some may claim that better corporate results are the cause . Now if we see the relation of Dow with USD and AUD  then it is easily understandable why I am saying this . Now if someone has no idea about USD and AUD , then he must be thinking  AUD as the currency of U.S  !

Shanghai is not leaving 3000 level easily but looking at the volume support it needs to go up from here , unless rate hike problem makes it vulnerable for another round of corrections .

7300 is working as good resistance for DAX . Crossing 7500 level is a big test for it . I am not very optimistic about it last few days movement but if better economical expectation shifts from U.S. to Germany then we may expect it around 7500 level .


Reports due this week –

Monday, 25thApril , 2011 – New Home Sales

Tuesday, 26thApril , 2011 – Home Price Index ,  Consumer Confidence

Wednesday, 27thApril , 2011 – Durable Goods Order

Thursday, 28thApril , 2011 – Unemployment Claims , Pending home sales , 1st Quarter GDP

Friday, 29thApril , 2011 – Consumer Income & Spending , Consumer Sentiment .

 
Looming rate hikes and Debt infections are big threats , those are still controlling the markets . Problem in Gulf & north African countries are not coming under control . Unless some better news come from these places , any rising movement of stock indexes will not be much supported by the small investors .
Problem in Greece and Portugal is haunting the Europe as well as other places . But new comer , the budgetary deficit of U.S. can steal the show from here . 




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