Skip to main content

Week ended 8th April, 2011 – Currencies this week

In currency market biggest news was hike of interest rate by ECB to curb inflation rate . Rising  0.25% interest rate to 1.25%  was long due by ECB , in fact many banks already have started to adjust themselves expecting this move from the beginning of this year . Some  experts are expecting more rate hikes by ECB in coming days . But I think ECB will not only think about the big boys , they will also consider the impact of that to the weaker countries like  Ireland , Greece , Portugal  e.t.c. One of the main cause of this rate hike is inflation as such European commission upgraded their inflation forecast to 2.2% which is above their target . They are really concern about the oil & commodity factors . They increase the rate after nearly 2 years .


S.African RAND
Brazilaian REAL
Mexican PESO

Brazilian REAL is again appreciated lot this week , it is in it’s lowest level ever . I do not know whether it is true or not but someone told me that Brazilian finance minister resign because he could not able to control this appreciation in their currency !
Things were also same on the northern part of Brazil as Mexican PESO also rises highest level in fact it is more than 2 years high against the US$ .
South African RAND it getting support at 6.60 and it can be a good support for it . Brazilian REAL in one of it lowest level ever . After 2008 this is the lowest level for Mexican PESO ,  it is more than 2 years high against US$ .
There is a resistance at 1.46 for Euro &  a resistance at around 86 for Yen , look like in this moment it is hard for it to break it .

AUD weaken  in Tuesday as Australian Central bank kept interest rate unchanged in their  meeting . In Thursday AUD rises to fresh 29-year high in the news of better unemployment rate in march , in spite of natural disaster in early of this year this new is really good for them .

The difference between the USD and AUD reflects the performance of it . AUD traded at it’s highest level since it was allowed to trade freely  & climbed at  $1.0540 .  Since AUD broke 1.02 it started a new phase of run , whatever movement it will make now it will act for future resistance and support for it .
There is a resistance at 1.46 for Euro & a resistance at around 86 for YEN ,  look like in this moment this is hard for YEN to break it . Euro rises to 14th month high versus  US$ on the expectation of rising interest rate in Wednesday’s  ECB meeting  .

This week Gold beats EURO , as such Gold’s rise was good .
For dollar it was in pressure during last few days because everyone is waiting to see if US lawmakers are going to reach in any conclusion about budget .
During later period of the week many Asian Central banks intervene , as their currencies were appreciating against the US$ . They have no other way in this moment without intervening . Economies are following  very simple basic rule .

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.