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Week ended 8th April, 2011 – Currencies this week

In currency market biggest news was hike of interest rate by ECB to curb inflation rate . Rising  0.25% interest rate to 1.25%  was long due by ECB , in fact many banks already have started to adjust themselves expecting this move from the beginning of this year . Some  experts are expecting more rate hikes by ECB in coming days . But I think ECB will not only think about the big boys , they will also consider the impact of that to the weaker countries like  Ireland , Greece , Portugal  e.t.c. One of the main cause of this rate hike is inflation as such European commission upgraded their inflation forecast to 2.2% which is above their target . They are really concern about the oil & commodity factors . They increase the rate after nearly 2 years .



CURRENCY
8th-Apr-2011
4/1/2011-4/8/2011
25th-Mar-1st-Apr-2011




EURO
1.448
1.75%
1.06%
AUD
1.057
1.83%
1.16%
YEN
84.74
0.82%
3.35%
RUPEE
44.04
-1.36%
0
SWISS FRANC
0.911
-1.83%
1.53%
S.African RAND
6.632
-0.86%
-2.19%
Brazilaian REAL
1.569
-1.93%
-3.03%
Mexican PESO
11.719
-0.93%
-1.25%




Brazilian REAL is again appreciated lot this week , it is in it’s lowest level ever . I do not know whether it is true or not but someone told me that Brazilian finance minister resign because he could not able to control this appreciation in their currency !
Things were also same on the northern part of Brazil as Mexican PESO also rises highest level in fact it is more than 2 years high against the US$ .
South African RAND it getting support at 6.60 and it can be a good support for it . Brazilian REAL in one of it lowest level ever . After 2008 this is the lowest level for Mexican PESO ,  it is more than 2 years high against US$ .
There is a resistance at 1.46 for Euro &  a resistance at around 86 for Yen , look like in this moment it is hard for it to break it .

AUD weaken  in Tuesday as Australian Central bank kept interest rate unchanged in their  meeting . In Thursday AUD rises to fresh 29-year high in the news of better unemployment rate in march , in spite of natural disaster in early of this year this new is really good for them .

The difference between the USD and AUD reflects the performance of it . AUD traded at it’s highest level since it was allowed to trade freely  & climbed at  $1.0540 .  Since AUD broke 1.02 it started a new phase of run , whatever movement it will make now it will act for future resistance and support for it .
There is a resistance at 1.46 for Euro & a resistance at around 86 for YEN ,  look like in this moment this is hard for YEN to break it . Euro rises to 14th month high versus  US$ on the expectation of rising interest rate in Wednesday’s  ECB meeting  .


This week Gold beats EURO , as such Gold’s rise was good .
For dollar it was in pressure during last few days because everyone is waiting to see if US lawmakers are going to reach in any conclusion about budget .
During later period of the week many Asian Central banks intervene , as their currencies were appreciating against the US$ . They have no other way in this moment without intervening . Economies are following  very simple basic rule .



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .




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