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Week ended 8th April , 2011 – Market this week .

ECB raises interest rate by 0.25% this week , as such this was long due . Everyone of us expecting that . Though Portugal is in trouble but it is good that Spain is in better condition though their unemployment number roses as their service sector is lagging in this matter . In spite of rate hike by ECB and China , this week markets were quite ok .



INDEX
8th-Apr-2011
4/1/2011-4/8/2011
25th-Mar-1st-Apr-2011




DOW
12380
0.03%
1.27%
FTSE
6055
0.76%
1.84%
CAC
4061
0.17%
2.06%
DAX
7217
0.52%
3.35%
NIKKEI
9768
0.61%
1.80%
HANG SENG
24396
2.49%
2.77%
AUS
4940
1.62%
2.50%
SHANGHAI
3030
2.12%
-0.33%
SENSEX
19451
0.15%
3.21%
BOVESPA
68718
-0.79%
2.21%
RUSSIA
7468
-0.16%
2.40%
INDONESIA
3741
0.91%
2.77%
KOSPI
2127
0.28%
3.26%
STRAITS
3187
2.14%
1.62%
THAI
1082
1.69%
2.60%
ARGENTINA
3480
0.25%
3.67%
S. AFRICA
32633
1.02%
2.51%



Russia is due for correction for long it needs a correction . Previously I told that I expected little more correction in DAX but it did  not correct so much .



Hang Seng like other indexes see some quick up side movement , as chart pattern indicates it very well .



Malaysian KLSE breaks the trend for an up move . It gets minor resistance at 1560 but in this moment it looks like it may cross that level for higher move , unless some corrections happen around us .

China increase the fuel price this week and some experts feel that it needs to increase it more in coming days . A weak US$  makes commodity prices cheaper for others who are holding other currencies . Copper Price can go more in the upside from here as it looks like in the chart .



COMMODITY
8th-Apr-2011
4/1/2011-4/8/2011
25th-Mar-1st-Apr-2011




GOLD (Mar)
1473.7
3.17%
0.10%
SILVER (May)
40.61
7.63%
1.83%
COPPER (May)
450.15
5.70%
-3.63%
Nymex  (May)
112.79
4.49%
2.40%



From last few weeks I was expecting Oil to break this 107 level . This week it’s move was quite extraordinary , it was a quick up move especially in the last day .
I am expecting some more moves from here , may be little bit correction we can see but it needs to be look at that whether it beats the 107 level or not . If the political situations becomes more problematic then it will go more and more in the up side . Brent Crude top more than 126 .
Due to high oil price and inflation concern Gold & Silver future were up . Gold is lacking momentum when comparing to Silver .  Silver was as high as 40.96 .
I was expecting some up move in Gold if it able to break that 1440 level . This week Gold just reflects my prediction . If I am not wrong we may see Gold touching 1490 level from here in coming days .



Coming week


DAX is facing some resistance at around 7200 level , if market remains bad it may retest the low of 6900 level . On the upside it can reach at 7400 level if it crosses the 7300 level .
5000 is the target for Australian index in coming days but I will be looking for some correction in coming week .
9100 level is a good resistance for Thai index but first it needs to cross 8900 level which is acting as minor resistance .
This week’s move for Shanghai Composite was very encouraging as I was expecting that it is going to cause the 3000 level . In the up side it may face some resistance at 3050 if it crosses that it can easily reach to 3150 level .


Reports due this week

Tuesday, 12 April ,2011 – US Trade gap

Wednesday,13 April , 2011 – Retail Sales

Thursday, 14 April , 2011 – Unemployment Claim ,  Producer Price Index

Friday, 15 April , 2011 – Consumer Price Index , Industrial Production , Consumer Sentiment .


According to United nation’s FAO , global food prices are decreasing after nearly 8 months  but they also warned about the rebound of the prices .  I think when oil price is not decreasing  as also no improvement in political situations it is hard to expect much decline in food prices .
When situation around us is problematic investor are going safer options and dollar rises , but when there is less problem investors are going into riskier assets like Stock , Oil and Euro . This is the basic trend of the financial market in recent time . But this rule is not followed in case of  US stocks as these are rising even when US was in trouble , US$  was in trouble & even when most markets are going in the phases of corrections .  I think there is some problem with these stocks . one day these are  going to cost the investors and traders .

Whatever the employment reports say , I will not understand those unless the recovery picks up speed . The most important thing is unless the interest rates increase . I do not think there is any sign of that in near future .
As we cannot forget that banks are still going down in US as 2 more banks were shut down by US regulator . Now the number increases to 28 in this year of 2011 .  This shows the real picture .




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .





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