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Week ended 20th May, 2011 – Currencies this week .


Goldman Sachs cut it’s dollar forecast as they are seeing  more weakness in coming days. This forecast is quite different from others because  it did not effect much in USD’s move. Things can be different if it would be another currency or another part of the world. Anyway, Euro dropped to 7th week low against USD. It also fell in a record low against Swiss FRANC due to Greece matter. Many are suspecting that things can be bad for Spain’s ruling party on local & regional elections in weekend. They are expecting Spanish borrowing cost to rise for any political turmoil.

Most of the Asian currencies rose this week. Experts are expecting that these rise will continue, as there is no indication of rate hike in US and on the other hand Asian countries have better growth figures. AUD rose this week because of growing expectation of hike in interest rate in Australia. Exporters are taking hedge guessing this hike in interest rate and its effect on AUD.


Coming week

EURO has a strong support at around 1.40 level, this week it just turn back from just above that support level. But 1.42 is still working for it. Last day’s close was in lower position. Right now chart pattern is not so encouraging for EURO. On the upside if it breaks 1.44 convincingly then we can expect some rise from it. But I think that it has a chance to retest it’s 1.40 support level.

For USD, 76 acts as good resistance as I told in last week. It looks to me if it further recovers then it may find some resistance just above 77 level as where I make a mark in the chart. It is also getting support at  75 level. I am not sure but it may be again going for lower highs and lower lows.
AUD turned back from its support level of 1.05. Last day’s figure was not good, in spite of that I think it will try to retest its resistance of around 1.07 level.
Swiss FRANC has not shown any rise in this week, news on German growth future and Greece problem helped it to gain in last day. It has a flat movement with downside biased. Swiss economy minister said that central bank will take appropriate measures to control it’s rising.
YEN is finding resistance at around 82. On the down side its support is at 80.5 level. Though chart pattern is not clear but it looks to me that it is gong to make some bearish pattern. YEN reached its one of the strongest level versus EURO since G- 7 nations intervene to control YEN’s gain.
South African RAND dropped this week and its move in last day was quite encouraging. Chart pattern says that it will not rise from here unless it breaks up this 6.8 level. RAND is the 2nd best performer against the USD.
If Brazilian REAL breaks the 1.64 level then it makes a positive pattern. On the downside its support is at 1.6 level. But as inflation figure is improving they can expect something good for their country.
Mexican PESO find resistance at 11.75 level. On the lower side it is getting support at 11.6 level.

I will be closely watching the developments from Europe and US in coming days. Because those can be the deciding factors.




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