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Week ended 20th May, 2011 – Markets this week .


Most of the markets were down this week, though some were average. IMF head Strauss Kahn's arrest effects the market as well as the presidential election of France this week, later in the week he resigned from the post. Rating Agencies ruled the market this week, as some rating cuts & revision happened this week. Fitch cut Greece’s credit rating, Moody’s cut credit rating of 4 Australian banks, Goldman Sachs revised down the rating of South Korean market, S&P lowered its outlook on Italy. All these rating agencies are again working hard these days to make market down, so that new moneys can enter. In the early days of the week investors in China and Australia bought lot of beaten down stocks.

Japan is in recession as experts are saying, because it’s GDP figure for consecutive 2 quarters contracted. As recent report showed that for first 3 months of 2011, GDP shrank 0.9% and its consumer confidence fell to 33.1 in April, which is far below from standard 50. There were better unemployment figures from UK though inflation is still a concern as it rose 4.5% in April. German investor confidence declined in May as inflation is a big concern from them, somewhere I read that there is a concern in Germany about its future economic growth.


Other Markets



Last week I was talking about Oil (Nymex) support level of $97, though it went below that level but always closed above $97.

On the upside I said about $104 but it able to closed just above $100. Oil is forming a bearish pattern and from the chart it looks to me that in coming days it is going down but this chart pattern can suddenly negates if some political events happen. I am not satisfied with last days figure. Same things go with the Brent Crude also.

This week Silver’s move was a flat one, but the bearish pattern that I talked about in last week is still on. If it does not break $39 level, it is hard to assume any up trend. In the low side if it breaks $34 level then that pattern will come into action.

As you know Gold is trading on a channel, this week it came close to break that channel in fact it closed for few days below that channel. But ultimately it closed positively in the last day and made a good gain of more than 1% this week.
On the upside, the level is  $1520 level and on the down side, $1470 level can trigger it’s movements. That pattern I told during last few weeks is still on and in coming days we may see its effect.

Copper broke its initial resistance of $403 level but now it is facing another resistance at around $415. Its better resistance is around $427 level. In coming week if sentiment is good then it must try to rise from here, but if sentiment becomes negative then it will again try to re-test its lower support levels.



Coming week

Last week I told about the negative sentiment which may effect Dow Jones, as such it came down from 12800 level and now hovering around 12500 level. Though it went further below 12400 level. 12400 is a good level of support for Dow. The lowest closing figure that it gave this week is 12479  which is almost close to  61.8% Fibonacci level ( 12478 ). On the upside it can go 12703 level and on the downside unless it breaks 12400 level I do not think any correction is gong to come. 12000 is vital level for it.
Shanghai Composite is still trading at 2850 level. What I am wondering looking at this Chinese and Indian stock index that in spite of lot of bad news it was not corrected much during last few weeks. As I told in one of my post that Chinese market is one of the cheaper index, technically it is also close to 200 DMA and some technical indicators say that it is in a position to buy. So in coming days if it goes up from here I will not astonished.
Last week I told about Bovespa’s lower highs and lower lows pattern. It’s  61000 support level is still intact. Now in coming days it may again try to move from support level which it is getting at 62500 to test level higher than 64000.
For DAX  I will be talking some defensive approach, because in spite of getting high it couldn’t go past 7600 level, now it is testing the lows and 7200 is very good support level. Some bad news came  from Germany this week about its business confidence, inflation data. Somewhere I saw about its lower economic growth forecast, these thing can be a threat for DAX in coming week.



Reports due this week –

Tuesday, 24th May – New Home Sales

Wednesday, 25th May – Durable Good Orders

Thursday, 26th May – Unemployment Claims, GDP revision.

Friday, 27th May – Consumer Sentiment, Pending Home Sales.



European matters and QE-2 ( QE-3 ? ) program of US is going to decide the future matters. As I trade in Indian market I was watching some short-positions in the lower levels for some of the sectors, which is not encouraging at all. I saw many charts and believe me all those charts are showing quite similar pattern. Most of the markets are not showing any solid sign of rise, and this makes the  things more difficult. But as I said sentiment is negative …………..




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

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