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Week ended 27th May, 2011 – Currencies this week .



In the opening day of the week  EURO & AUD  e.t.c. were trading at low because of  Chinese PMI data, Europe’s own debt problem and defeat of ruling party in Spanish election.
 AUD  rose later half of the week due to remark from the official of Australian Central Bank and due to demand for equities. USD fell in Friday as some good comment came about Greece.


In Thursday EURO rose on news that China will enhance  European bond purchase. EURO was trading at 1.237 which was a record low against the Swiss FRANC. There were lot of good news for New Zealand Dollar as it appreciated because of rebound in commodity prices and there was a news that China investment corporation is planning to invest in New Zealand.

Swiss FRANC strengthened to all time high against EURO due to concern about European debt concern. It also climbed to a record level against  Dollar and Pound.

Swiss FRANC is acting as a safe heaven now, especially in Europe.
Most of the Asian currencies declined this week, especially in those markets where foreigners sold shares. South Korean won was in higher side against the US$ because foreigner bought local share by ending 10 selling session. Belarus devalued it ROUBLE  against the Dollar by 36%.


Coming week

Last day I said that in spite of bad sentiment AUD can go to test the 1.07 resistance level, though it crossed that level in intraday movement but close just below it. On the downside its support at 1.05 level is working fine with it.

If it rises from here then it may find resistance at 1.08 level. Looking at the chart it sometimes look that it is just trying to take a new move after breaking a pattern. 
For EURO I said it may re-test its 1.40 level as such it gave a low in early days of the week below that level . Its resistance at 1.44 level is still exist. Though last few days of the week it rises but I still do not expect much from it.

76 is acting as good resistance for USD. Last day I said that it can again go for lower highs and lower lows. 

If it breaks 75 level and then 73, then it is going to make that above pattern. This week commodity market saw some actions due to USD.  Swiss FRAN is acting as a safe heaven for others. It sharply come down from last week movements. I cannot give any figure for it. I think unless these uncertainties reduce it will act like this.

Last day I was talking about 1.64 resistance level for Brazilian REAL, this week it couldn’t able to break it. It broke the 1.60 support level. 

Since there was better inflation figure in last week, I was expecting some positive move from it. Mexican PESO broke a pattern in the last day of the week and it looks to me it is again going to re-test its support at 11.5 level.
YEN is coming back from 82 level as I said in last day.  What problem I find with YEN is that people cannot take any decision which way to go. Because for investors, in one side there is European debt problem and on the other side there is structural economical problem in Japan. Though in april they beat the deflation but how long they can maintain it, is a big matter.
Asian and Emerging countries are still getting the advantage from the point of views of growth and spread in interest rate from developed countries. So their currencies are going to performed accordingly.


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

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