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Week ended 17th June, 2011 – Currencies this week .

In the initial days of this week market was average due to some better reports but matters become problematic due to Greece debt problem. Switzerland is making gain when Europe is feeling the pain, that is the talking going on  around the financial world. Swiss FRANC hit a record against EURO this week. In Monday EURO was all time low against the Swiss FRANC, but better reports from different parts of the world made EURO to rose more against Swiss FRANC in Tuesday. But again in Thursday it hit all time low figure against Swiss FRANC. Swiss government lowered its forecast for 2012 economic growth and said a further appreciation of the FRANC is a risk.

Business confidence  data for May and lending data of April were disappointing, but AUD rose more when governor of Reserve bank of Australia  said about raising interest rate and he signaled that coming  inflation data in next month may be crucial for it.
Thailand’s BHAT touched weakest level in 3 month on political concern. Many other Asian currencies dropped this week, the main reason of this drop is European debt crisis.


Coming week

AUD is still facing side based movements. The range is 1.045 to 1.075, which are good support and resistance level for it. If we see the chart of AUD for one years then we can make a fair guess that it is building the base for another big move from here. Only things that is crucial for any rise of AUD is the hike in interest rate.
Japanese YEN is again going to test 80 level, though it tried to go in 81 level as I said in past week but last day’s move was disappointing. Now it is more than two months during which Japanese YEN is moving around 80-83 level ( Week ended 17rd June, 2011 – YEN this week .).

After USD’s move with volume in last week, this week some rise was quite expected, though fundamentals do not support it. Anyway it is again getting resistance at 76 level which it couldn’t break in few days ago. This week it did the same thing and just turn back from that level. Chart pattern tells me that it will not going to rise from here. Though it has a support at around 73.5 level. Sometimes it look to me that it is building a pattern here, in coming days it will be clear for us.
Brazilian REAL couldn’t able to go at 1.63 level as I said in last day it closed far below from that. It looks to me that 1.60 is acting as a good level for it. So unless it breaks 1.56 support and 1.63 resistance, I don’t expect any solid move from it.

EURO’s drop this week was quite expected, as I said in last day that 1.42 is a good support for it, and in worse case it will be 1.40. It did exactly the same thing. Chart pattern says me that in coming week, we may see some rise in it. EURO may again test it’s previous resistance levels. It’s immediate is at 1.45 level. In the down side which I don’t think is going to happen it has the same supports which I said above.
Unless Swiss FRANC breaks 0.86 level and then 0.88 level I am not expecting any rise from it. It looks to me that in coming days it may go to test 0.86 level. And in the downside 0.835 is still support for it.
South African RAND couldn’t test it’s lower support,  in fact it tried to rise this week though last day was different. For it 6.5-6.9 is the range, if it breaks this then we may see some new moves. Mexican PESO is testing 12 level and unless it break 12.6, I don’t see any new rises from it.

As I read some news that Greece debt crisis is improving, German gesture is better, but meeting in 19th June will be important. Currency market is watching all the developments in Europe very closely because it is going to decide the future path.



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

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