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Week ended 24th June, 2011 – Market this week .

Though Greece are trying to secure their bail out fund by completing the steps, by one by one. But Rating agencies are making the problem worse, as Fitch threat to cut the Greece rating if lenders rollover their loans, on the other hand Moody’s threat to downgrade 13 Italian banks and Italy’s Aa2 credit rating. Not only in Greece, Fitch warned that US credit rating would be put on negative watch if debt ceiling deal wasn’t reached.

Though Irish economy grew in first quarter of this year and wage salaries were up in Euro-zone but German economic sentiment fell this week. But better disappointments came from US, when Fed cut the growth forecast of US economy and no news came from Bernanke about QE-3. Some bad signs also came from China due to lower PMI figure and as companies are postponing their IPOs due to bad market sentiment.

Other Markets


Nymex  (Aug)
Brent Crude (Aug)
Natural Gas  (Aug)
Gold (Aug)
Silver (Aug)
Copper (Aug)

Oil prices fell this week, after the announcement of IEA that it’s member will sell some of their reserve. Drop in Oil was expected as I said in last day, but Brent broke it’s support of $108. This reserves sell hit more to Brent crude than Nymex, so it fell more than Nymex. $90-$92 support level is good for Nymex, so if it breaks it then it may fall further. $102-$103 support level is good for Brent. Though Natural Gas rose but it was getting resistance in $45 level, and in later part of the week it dropped to test $42 level. If in coming days it does not show some rise then it has a chance to fall from this level, as chart indicates that there is a bearish pattern is in the formation for Natural Gas. So I will be watching  $42 level very closely for Natural Gas.
Silver is trading $33-$39 level, unless it breaks any of these levels, it is very hard to take a directional call. In spite of starting good in the early days of the week Gold couldn’t go past $1550 resistance level, it even broke $1520 support level. In coming days it may test $1480 support level, on the upside $1550 resistance is still intact for Gold.

Coming week

I was expecting some rise in DOW, it just went to that resistance level of 12200. I don’t like last day’s figure, it looks to me little disappointing and also there is a volume support. If in coming days, it does not get any better news then we cannot expect any positive move from it. In coming week there are some important reports, those are due. So market must be looking on them for any direction. But for any rise it needs to break 12400 level and on the downside 11800 level is ok for short-term.
BOVESPA is trying to make lower highs and lower lows, this week’s move was not clear to me. It may be in an uncertain zone. What looks to me it is getting some good support at 61000 level.

It is good to see that KLSE broke it’s resistance level of 1560. 17th June’s move was encouraging, but economical problems around the world are disturbing it’s move. It has a good resistance at 1580 level. Now last day’s move with volume was good, but it is in oversold zone, so it will be vulnerable for any news. In the lower side 1543 is the level to watch.

I was expecting some rise in DAX, though it rose but ultimately it came down from that level. DAX is still showing side based rally. Monday’s gap up opening ultimately dissatisfied many. If things become good, I am expecting some rise in DAX . For any rise 7300 level is important. On the other side 7000 level is still intact for DAX. During past few weeks I was talking about bearish pattern, that is still on for DAX.
For Shanghai Composite I was expecting some rise from this level, in spite of the fact that it form a bearish pattern. Last day’s move came with big volume, but I do not like it’s close. As I told about 2800 level, it closed far below that. What I think that it may again try to test that level, unless some bad news come. In the lower side 2600 support level is still intact.

Reports due in coming days

Monday, 27th June, 2011 – Personal Income/Spending

Tuesday,28th June,2011 – Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence.

Wednesday,29th June,2011 – Pending Home Sales

Thursday,30th June, 2011 – Unemployment Claims

Friday,1st July, 2011 – Consumer Sentiment, ISM Mfg. Index, Construction Spending.

Markets are in a ……… phase where from it is getting hard to take any directional call. But those threats of rating downgrade and cut in growth forecast are not good at all, as well as the inflation fever, which are not improving much. In Europe, both external & internal problems are making things more difficult for Greek authorities. Sometime I think what will happen if markets crash now, are things will be ok for Obama !  or will it be ok for Euro-nations !  When these matters come into mind it looks to me that markets are not going to crash, but many charts say the different stories.

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .


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