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Week ended 3rd June, 2011 – Currencies this week .


Euro rose to highest point in 4 weeks due to expectation of financial package for Greece. Somewhere I read that matter will be decided in June end. USD was down due to Nonfarm Payroll report, which was not up to the expectation. USD  now also in trouble due to threat of rating downgrade and ending of QE-2.

In spite  of fall in GDP data Australian dollar rose to a highest level in nearly a month in Wednesday as some were expecting more  contraction in GDP figure.

But due to weak sentiment from US, on Thursday AUD was at lower side despite bumper retail sales report.  AUD touched higher on Friday due to some better news about Greek debt deal and concern over US fiscal health

Most of the Asian currencies gain for 3rd week on speculation of rate hike to control inflation. South Korean WON rose for 5th straight trading session in Wednesday but in Thursday it declined due to weak US economic data and debt problem in Europe.
Chinese YUAN was at record level this week against the dollar as US Treasury department said that Chinese currency was not manipulated but it is undervalued. What I think as I said few weeks ago that China has its own limitations, country is facing inflation as a big threat. So in this circumstances if YUAN is appreciated then it to some extent may help China to control its inflation. Some traders are expecting that China will allow YUAN to gain more in coming days.




Coming week

Last week I told about the resistance of 1.44 level for EURO, this week it breaks the 1.44 level and even another resistance of 1.46. If things go in same fashion we may see EURO to test 1.48 level in coming week, If it goes to that level then we may see EURO to form a pattern.

It is in very early stage of that pattern but there is a good possibility of building it. On the lower side 1.40 is still good support, but now we may look in the upside.

Brazilian REAL is looking for support in it’s pervious tested level of 1.56. It looks to me that it may rebound from this 1.56 level. but in case it breaks this level in the lower side then it can test further lower levels ( Week ended 3rd June, 2011 – Brazilian REAL this week .).
South African RAND is making some big bearish pattern. If it breaks near 6.5 support level then it will trigger that bearish pattern. If in coming days Mexican PESO breaks 11.55 level then we may see it around 11.40 level.

Last week I told two support level for USD at 75 and 73. Though it broke 75 level but it closed above 73 level. After that payroll report I do not think that sentiment has improved for USD. So in coming days it may test 73 level again. I will be looking for it to make lower highs and lower lows.
AUD is still moving in the between 1.07 resistance level and 1.05 support level. Last week I talk that if it try to test the higher levels then it may face some resistance at 1.08 level. Last day it tried to move in higher levels but it ultimately failed to carry it.

There is no prediction about Swiss FRANC. Chart cannot say anything, we have to take decision on the basis of economical and political situation (Week ended 3rd June, 2011 – Swiss FRANC this week .).

81 is acting a good level for Japanese YEN. It is showing side based movement from September 2010, average range of  YEN is 80-85 level. Though it has a slightly downside risk, but any bad news from USD can be good news for both Swiss FRANC and Japanese YEN. Though exporters in Japan  may not like this.

Whenever there will be tension in US, USD will be down and all the attention will be shifting towards currencies like Swiss FRANC and Japanese YEN. Though Japan is in little bit trouble but yet there currencies are not showing any effect of that. In coming days any good news from Greece or any PIGS countries will be a great thing for EURO.




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog.

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