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Week ended 15th July, 2011 – Currencies this week .




In the early days of the week EURO fell due to contagion fear and other existing European problems. Euro fell to 7-week low against USD and a record low against Swiss FRANC.  EURO was at $1.39 as Moody’s downgraded Ireland’s rating. Later in the week  EURO rose against USD due to statement from FED chairman about QE, it also get support from FITCH ratings expecting Italy to successfully implement plan for deficit reduction and from better than expected European bank stress tests.


CURRENCY
15th-July-2011
7/8/2011-7/15/2011
7/1/2011-7/8/2011




USD
75.216
0.04%
1.11%
EURO
1.416
-0.70%
-1.79%
AUD
1.064
-1.02%
-0.18%
YEN
79.06
-1.98%
-0.27%
RUPEE
44.52
0.45%
-0.58%
SWISS FRANC
0.816
-2.62%
-1.29%
S.African RAND
6.87
2.55%
-0.31%
Brazilian REAL
1.576
0.89%
0.25%
Mexican PESO
11.733
0.93%
0.16%





In the later days of the week South Korean WON rose against the US$  due to inflow of funds but in the later period it dropped due to lowered  economic growth forecast. Brazilian REAL weakened after Government’s effort and it later rose due to outlook of rising interest rate. In Taiwan, foreign funds sold stocks and as a result of that  Taiwanese Dollar was down. Indian RUPEE and Malaysia’s RINGGIT declined this week.



Coming week


1.44-1.45 is the level in the upside which is crucial for EURO. This week it went down more breaking 1.42 level . As I said in last week that 1.40 to 1.49 is the level, that is working well for EURO. Now if it breaks this level in the lower side then it has a probability to negate the pattern which I talked about.
Last day I told that unless USD breaks 76.5 level it will not negate the bearish pattern, though it rose more than that but gave close in lower point. What I think that in coming days it may again go to test that level.  USD is moving around 73.5-76.5 level. (Week ended 15th July, 2011 – USD this week .)
AUD couldn’t break it’s initial resistance at 1.075 and in the downside 1.05 level is still exist for AUD.This week Swiss FRANC gave lower points against USD, and in coming days it may show couple of days side based movements. I was expecting some up movement in REAL but it was not much as it failed to test it’s 1.60 level. In coming days it may retest it’s lows.
Mexican PESO broke it’s resistance of 11.75 but it fell down from that level. It needs to break 11.75 level convincingly to prove any rise from here.
There is a growing fear that AUD may lost it’s run against USD as China is facing a threat of slowdown. In case of YEN, Japanese government intervention is due. Euro rose in later days of this week but it can react for any worse news in coming days. In these bad environment US authorities can act to make their export more profitable and for this they will adjust their currency in future, as some economic indicators were not good at all.


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .


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