Skip to main content

Week ended 15th July, 2011 – Markets this week .



Fear about Euro-zone debt crisis, some bad economic reports and threats of rating agencies have effected the market this week. Better inflation rate and unemployment rate in UK were overshadowed by the slower Chinese economic growth & foreign direct investment. Indian factory output and Singapore’s economic growth were not encouraging at all. But stress test of European banks were look better to some experts though some Spanish banks are not in a good position.


Metal Market

COMMODITY
15th-July-2011
7/8/2011-7/15/2011
7/1/2011-7/8/2011




Nymex  (Aug)
97.24
1.08%
1.32%
Brent Crude (Sep)
117.26
-0.37%
5.86%
Natural Gas  (Aug)
4.546
8.10%
-2.45%
Gold (Aug)
1590.1
3.14%
3.97%
Silver (Aug)
39.064
6.90%
8.42%
Copper (Aug)
4.408
0.04%
2.56%


In the early days of the week Oil price dropped due to drop in Chinese Oil import and world economic problems. NYMEX Crude was moving around $96 level. Unless it breaks  $98 and then $102 level, I don’t expect any rise from it. In the downside if it breaks $96 then it will be testing $94 level. Though Brent Crude broke $116 level but it is getting resistance at $119 level. In the downside it is getting support at $112 level. Natural Gas broke one of it’s crucial resistance at $4.50 level. In coming days it may test $4.850 level but first it has to break $4.60 level, in the downside unless it breaks $4.20, I do not expect any fall.

Last week’s job report and this week bad economic news effected Gold’s movement. It broke it’s important resistance of $1550 level. Gold’s movement look positive to me, though it can take some rest here may be testing $1550 support level, but any bad news will again move it’s direction in the northern side. During last few weeks I told many times that if Silver breaks $39 level then it may again rise from here. This week it broke that level and now I want to see that whether it sustains in this level or not.


Coming week



I was expecting some positive days in DOW in later half of the week, but it did not. Investors are still doubtful about the index movement from here. 12400-12600 is important level for DOW in coming days. If it breaks this level then it may run up to 12000 in the downside and in the upside it may test 12800 level, provided it breaks 12600.
Shanghai Composite was little bit dull this week. It has to come-out from this 2600-2900 level for any directional move.
Last week I said that DAX can test lower levels, but it broke 7300 level and went far below. Though in later days of this week it rose from it’s low point. Now 7100 becomes crucial support for DAX.  It may try to feel up the gap it created in the beginning of the week. But unless the market improves, I don’t think individual index will decouple from here.
Lower highs and lower lows pattern of  BOVESPA was clearly indicating in last week that it is going to break 61000 level, as I said. Now it is getting some support at 59500 level. During last 9 day, it fell 8 days. So some pull-back may come in coming week.
I was expecting some corrections in KLSE as it was in over-bough zone. KLSE movement in last few days were not supported by volume, so it may again rise to test that 1900 level.


Reports due in coming days

Monday,18 July, 2011 – Housing Market Index

Tuesday,19 July, 2011 – Housing Starts

Wednesday,20 July, 2011 – Existing Home Sales

Thursday,21 July, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, Home Price Index,  Phila. Fed Index.


As investors now have some limitations in Treasuries, so naturally demand for precious metals especially Gold may be more in coming days. Some investors may take their positions in Emerging markets, though many have limitations about Russian debt, Chinese slowdown, Indian inflation e.t.c. But don’t it look better than US & European problems ?


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .



Comments

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.