Fear about Euro-zone debt crisis, some bad economic reports and threats of rating agencies have effected the market this week. Better inflation rate and unemployment rate in
were overshadowed by the slower Chinese economic growth & foreign direct investment. Indian factory output and UK ’s economic growth were not encouraging at all. But stress test of European banks were look better to some experts though some Spanish banks are not in a good position. Singapore
Brent Crude (Sep)
Natural Gas (Aug)
In the early days of the week Oil price dropped due to drop in Chinese Oil import and world economic problems. NYMEX Crude was moving around $96 level. Unless it breaks $98 and then $102 level, I don’t expect any rise from it. In the downside if it breaks $96 then it will be testing $94 level. Though Brent Crude broke $116 level but it is getting resistance at $119 level. In the downside it is getting support at $112 level. Natural Gas broke one of it’s crucial resistance at $4.50 level. In coming days it may test $4.850 level but first it has to break $4.60 level, in the downside unless it breaks $4.20, I do not expect any fall.
Last week’s job report and this week bad economic news effected Gold’s movement. It broke it’s important resistance of $1550 level. Gold’s movement look positive to me, though it can take some rest here may be testing $1550 support level, but any bad news will again move it’s direction in the northern side. During last few weeks I told many times that if Silver breaks $39 level then it may again rise from here. This week it broke that level and now I want to see that whether it sustains in this level or not.
I was expecting some positive days in DOW in later half of the week, but it did not. Investors are still doubtful about the index movement from here. 12400-12600 is important level for DOW in coming days. If it breaks this level then it may run up to 12000 in the downside and in the upside it may test 12800 level, provided it breaks 12600.
Shanghai Composite was little bit dull this week. It has to come-out from this 2600-2900 level for any directional move.
Last week I said that DAX can test lower levels, but it broke 7300 level and went far below. Though in later days of this week it rose from it’s low point. Now 7100 becomes crucial support for DAX. It may try to feel up the gap it created in the beginning of the week. But unless the market improves, I don’t think individual index will decouple from here.
Lower highs and lower lows pattern of BOVESPA was clearly indicating in last week that it is going to break 61000 level, as I said. Now it is getting some support at 59500 level. During last 9 day, it fell 8 days. So some pull-back may come in coming week.
I was expecting some corrections in KLSE as it was in over-bough zone. KLSE movement in last few days were not supported by volume, so it may again rise to test that 1900 level.
Reports due in coming days
Monday,18 July, 2011 – Housing Market Index
Tuesday,19 July, 2011 – Housing Starts
Wednesday,20 July, 2011 – Existing Home Sales
Thursday,21 July, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, Home Price Index, Phila. Fed Index.
As investors now have some limitations in Treasuries, so naturally demand for precious metals especially Gold may be more in coming days. Some investors may take their positions in Emerging markets, though many have limitations about Russian debt, Chinese slowdown, Indian inflation e.t.c. But don’t it look better than US & European problems ?
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