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Week ended 8th July, 2011 – Currencies this week .

EURO is now suffering from both domestic and external factors like US employment report. EURO ends lower this week against major rivals. Moody’s rate cut against Portugal and stress test of European banks were the major causes which effect EURO. Though growing tension about Italy can be a future headache for EURO.


S.African RAND
Brazilian REAL
Mexican PESO

AUD fell this week, as Reserve Bank of Australia hold the rate hike and as China one of the biggest exporter of Australia, raised the rate to cool the inflation. Most of the Asian currencies rose this week.  Thailand BHAT rose much in last five days due to political developments and overseas investments. South Korean WON rose highest level in 3 years due to global developments and on renewed foreign inflows. China raised rates this week and experts are expecting countries like Thailand are also in the line to do so.

Coming week

Last day I said that EURO is following a trend and 1.46 level is very crucial for it. Since this week it couldn’t able to break it, so it is following that trend and may be making a pattern. It’s top is at 1.49 and base is at 1.40, it is moving around it. In coming week it may move around 1.45 to 1.42 level. What I think that if we consider this year, then in a rising trend this type of movement indicate further rise. But situations are not so good for that in Europe.
AUD’s movement was side based. It couldn’t break 1.075 convincingly, so 1.85 resistance level is still intact on the downside 1.05 level.
USD is in between 73.5 to 76.5 level. In coming days if it break 75.5 to 76.5 level convincingly, then it will negate the bearish pattern which I was talking during last few weeks. If I look it in short-term perspective then it looks to me that USD is going to make some directional move in coming days.(Week ended 8th July, 2011 – USD this week .)
There were not much movement of Swiss FRANC against US$ this week, it was moving around 0.83-0.85 level. Though things were different with EURO. Brazilian REAL has not dropped much, as I was expecting last week. Though it made the lower bottom than it’s March bottom, but I am expecting some up movements incoming days. Last day I said about 11.50 support level for Mexican PESO, as such it came up just before that support level. In the upside it may test 11.75 level.
Since Greece now got IMF support so in this moment EURO may stable a bit, but I have still doubt about USD. It looks to me surroundings may force US to go for QE-3 though some statements are coming this week about economic stability without QE-3. Unless markets get some clear picture, things will move like this.

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .


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