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Week ended 22nd July, 2011 – Currencies this week .

At last after the settlement of next installment for Greece, EURO rose and recovered most of the grounds which it lost against dollar during last few weeks. Though in the last day it dropped a bit after some news of uncertainty about other parts of the Europe. Euro also rose against the other safer currencies like Swiss FRANC & YEN.


S.African RAND
Brazilian REAL
Mexican PESO

Asian currencies advanced to a higher levels, RINGGIT rose to a higher level on the speculation of imminent rate hike as their CPI rose to a 2 year high figure. Thailand’s  BHAT rose as foreign investors are increasing their investments in the country, it is showing this trend during last few weeks. Some good news about ratings from FITCH helped RUPIAH to appreciate this week. This week Chinese authority said some of their future steps about YUAN. AUD & WON were also in the higher side this week due to the developments in Europe and some good corporate results from US.

Coming week

As I said in past that EURO is following a pattern and this pattern in a rising trend means further rise in EURO.
This week it again came up from 1.41 level. This movement in the upside again proved that the pattern is still intact for EURO. Now time is coming closure for EURO to prove the pattern and if it takes little more time then it’s range will be around 1.40-1.44 level.
AUD rose from it’s initial resistance of 1.05 level, in the upside it broke it’s initial resistance of 1.075 level. Now it will be looking for 1.095 resistance level. In the downside  1.05 and then 1.04 level is still acting as good support for it.
I was expecting sideways movement for Swiss FRANC and it just did it. It’s 0.816 support level is still intact against dollar. In the upside 0.835 is the level to watch.

In the initial day USD tried to test higher level but it later came down. Now it is again trying lower levels, where it’s support is at 73.5 level. Last day’s close indicates that it may not drop more in coming days. Now it can show side way movements, but ultimately if the pattern is true then it will drop more in future. In the higher side 76 level is still intact, now if it breaks that then it will prove that pattern wrong. (Week ended 22nd July, 2011 – USD this week .)

Brazilian REAL re-test it’s lows as I was expecting it, but if it breaks this support level then it will drop more. In the upside 1.58 is the level to watch.
Mexican PESO couldn’t able to break it’s resistance  of 11.75 level and it is above it’s support of 11.55 level. In coming days it will move in this range and unless it break this range it will be wrong to expect any directional move from it.

Some experts are suspicion about EURO as they are seeing this move as very temporary. What I think that may be they are right to some extent but chart patterns of both the EURO and USD are saying quite different story.

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .


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