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Week ended 22nd July, 2011 – Markets this week.

Stock markets around the world showed some good rise after the European agreement about Greece to resolve the debt crisis. Though things are not same for all, as China showed some negative return this week as their manufacturing data (PMI) showed some bad result. This is quite expected, as we know they are trying hard to control the inflation. Japan posted a trade surplus, this recovery after that natural disaster is really good for them.

INDEX
22th-July-2011
7/15/2011-7/22/2011
7/8/2011-7/15/2011




DOW
12681
1.61%
-1.40%
FTSE
5935
1.57%
-2.45%
CAC
3842
3.11%
-4.77%
DAX
7326
1.46%
-2.45%
NIKKEI
10132
1.60%
-1.62%
HANG SENG
22444
2.60%
-3.74%
AUS
4602
2.88%
-3.88%
SHANGHAI
2770
-1.77%
0.82%
SENSEX
18722
0.86%
-1.57%
BOVESPA
60270
1.33%
-3.30%
RUSSIA
6967
2.72%
-1.75%
INDONESIA
4106
2.06%
0.49%
KOSPI
2171
1.21%
-1.60%
STRAITS
3182
3.17%
-2.12%
THAI
1121
3.89%
-0.82%
ARGENTINA
3356
0.90%
-4.14%
S. AFRICA
32125
-0.50%
0.89%


Some South Asian countries are facing inflation fever really hard as Vietnam’s CPI rose more than 22% in July, from a year earlier. On the other side Malaysia is also facing the rate hike problem as their inflation is increasing much.


Metal Market

Though Nymex Oil broke $98 level but $102 resistance level is still exist for it. In coming days it may rise to test this level. In the downside if it breaks $95 level then it can fall more. If Brent Crude breaks $120 level then it may retest higher levels. In the downside if it breaks $114 then it can fall more. Though Natural Gas broke one of it’s crucial resistance at 4.50 but it couldn’t carry this gain,  but as I said in last week that unless it breaks $4.20 I don’t expect any major fall on it.


COMMODITY
22th-July-2011
7/15/2011-7/22/2011
7/8/2011-7/15/2011




Nymex  (Sep)
99.87
2.32%
0.93%
Brent Crude (Sep)
118.67
1.20%
-0.37%
Natural Gas  (Aug)
4.399
-3.23%
8.10%
Gold (Aug)
1601.5
0.71%
3.14%
Silver (Aug)
40.112
2.68%
6.90%
Copper (Aug)
4.406
-0.04%
0.04%


Investors were taking shelter in Gold & Silver, as they were not sure about USD and US Treasuries. After last week’s move I was pretty sure that Gold will take some rest here, but if some more developments comes in coming days then Gold can re-test it’s low of $1550. During last few weeks I told many times that if Silver breaks $39 level convincingly then it can move higher, though it is showing some side based movement here. But I think coming days can be crucial for it. Like other metals Copper is also showing side movements this week. Look like all of them are waiting for some events or some catalyst for their next move.


Coming week


Some good corporate results and later news from Europe made a good impact on Dow. Last day I said that if it breaks 12600 then it may test 12800 level, though it couldn’t able to break it. But some technical say me that it can go past 13000 level. Though I am doubtful about it considering the economic situation in US.
Last day I was talking that DAX may fill up the gap which it created last week, it was trying exactly the same thing but I was expecting more. As I said that DAX will move in same way with the world market, though there is a chance of decouple but it is little hard. During last few weeks I talked about a bearish pattern for DAX, that is still open. If it breaks 7600 level then it may negate the pattern. 7000 is a good support level for DAX.    
I was expecting some more rise from BOVESPA but it did less. This week it broke the support of 59500 and even 59000. Now if that lower highs and lower lows continues then it will rise in coming days, therefore it’s first resistance will be at 61000 and then at 62500.
Shanghai Composite is not showing any encouraging move, in the upside it has a resistance of 2850 and in the downside it has immediate support at 2750 level and then at 2700 level. But if selling comes then it can fall further.
I was expecting that KLSE will rise as last week it has less volume but definitely it was in overbought condition. In the early days of this week it gave closing above important support level of 1550 and after that European news it bounces up. I think the rate hike fear is making problem for them. I am not sure that it will test that 1590 level under this environment.



Reports due in coming days

Monday, 26th July, 2011 – Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales.
Wednesday, 27th July, 2011 – Durable Goods Orders
Thursday,28th July, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales.
Friday, 29th July, 2011 – 2nd Quarter GDP, Consumer Sentiment.

Now it is less than 10 days remain to start August, there are lot fears are gathering around the financial world about that month. I don’t know whether masssssssssive correction is going to come, but I know this, that some of the indexes are in a zone where correction is very much needed. Now the words  QE-1,2,3……..  become very boring for me, let them decide what they need to do. In this time we can look into those indexes which are comparatively cheaper.



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .



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