Skip to main content

Week ended 29th July, 2011 – Markets this week.



INDEX
29th-July-2011
7/22/2011-7/29/2011
7/15/2011-7/22/2011




DOW
12143
-4.24%
1.61%
FTSE
5815
-2.02%
1.57%
CAC
3671
-4.45%
3.11%
DAX
7158
-2.29%
1.46%
NIKKEI
9833
-2.95%
1.60%
HANG SENG
22440
-0.01%
2.60%
AUS
4424
-3.86%
2.88%

SHANGHAI
2701
-2.49%
-1.77%
SENSEX
18197
-2.80%
0.86%
BOVESPA
58823
-2.40%
1.33%
RUSSIA
6832
-1.93%
2.72%
INDONESIA
4130
0.58%
2.06%
KOSPI
2133
-1.75%
1.21%
STRAITS
3189
0.21%
3.17%
THAI
1133
1.07%
3.89%
ARGENTINA
3321
-1.04%
0.90%
S. AFRICA
31208
-2.85%
-0.50%



I don’t think it is necessary to talk about US debt limit because we are going to see it in coming days. This week Moody’s cut Greece’s credit rating and Spain faced a possible downgrade from it, but situations are not same all places as Japan is showing some better performance but world economical problem is effecting South Korea as their growth slowed in the 2nd quarter and Australia is suffering by inflation.


Metal Market 



COMMODITY
29th-July-2011
7/22/2011-7/29/2011
7/15/2011-7/22/2011




Nymex  (Sep)
95.7
-4.17%
2.32%
Brent Crude (Sep)
116.74
-1.62%
1.20%
Natural Gas  (Sep)
4.145
-5.14%
-3.31%
Gold (Aug)
1628.3
1.67%
0.71%
Silver (Aug)
40.09
-0.05%
2.68%
Copper (Aug)
4.474
1.54%
-0.04%


This week Nymex Oil tried to test level above $100 but it failed to carry, this is quite understandable considering the world economical situation. As I said in last week that if it breaks $95 level then it can drop more, now it is time to see that whether it re-test $90 level or not. On the upside it has resistance at $100 level. This week Natural Gas broke one of it’s crucial support of $4.20 level, it has a chance to fall more from this level. On the upside it has a resistance at $4.40 level.
As situations are becoming worse, more investors are taking shelter under Gold, if this situation continues it may rise more. Though Silver is trying to go in higher levels but it fails as Gold is stealing the show.


Coming week


I don’t know what will be the outcome after 2nd August, but it is sure it may create opportunities for investors. As I said in last week that though some indicators are showing that DOW can go to test 13000 level but economic scenarios do not permit that, this week DOW did exactly the same thing. But last day’s close was little better. Since coming week is very important for world financial market, it will be wrong to predict anything.
This week DAX was testing 7000 level in the downside. It’s pattern which I talked about is now prominent and I will be looking how it does in future.
Brazil’s BOVESPA was in pressure this week. I was expecting some more rise from it to make the lower highs and lower lows pattern but it did less, but it is sure that it is following the same pattern. I don’t think that it will come from this unless there is some major changes in world economical problems.



Reports due in coming days

Monday, 1st August, 2011 – ISM Mfg. Index, Construction Spending.
Tuesday, 2nd August, 2011 – Auto Sales, Consumer Income & Spending.
Wednesday, 3rd August, 2011 – ADB Job Report, Factory Orders, ISM Non Mfg. Index.
Thursday, 4th August, 2011 – Unemployment Claim
Friday, 5th August, 2011 – Employment Report for July.


Sometime a question comes in my mind that whether markets are going to be ok,  if some good news come from US ?   I don’t think that any good news about debt limit can effect the market for long to medium time, yes it is sure it is going to effect for short-term. Most of the markets are in over-bought position so investor need to be cautious in this stage irrespective of the news from US.


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.