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Week ended 8th July, 2011 – Market this week .

Asian indexes are in green for 3 week in a row due to better economic news, things could be different after Friday’s US employment news, as we saw the reactions in case of other indexes. 


INDEX
8th-July-2011
7/1/2011-7/8/2011
6/24/2011-7/1/2011




DOW
12657
0.59%
5.42%
FTSE
5990
0.01%
5.12%
CAC
3913
-2.34%
5.89%
DAX
7402
-0.22%
4.18%
NIKKEI
10137
2.72%
1.96%
HANG SENG
22726
1.46%
1.02%
AUS
4654
1.37%
1.84%
SHANGHAI
2797
1.37%
0.47%
SENSEX
18858
0.51%
2.86%
BOVESPA
61513
-2.96%
3.89%
RUSSIA
6903
1.61%
3.00%
INDONESIA
4003
1.93%
2.05%
KOSPI
2180
2.58%
1.67%
STRAITS
3151
0.38%
2.38%
THAI
1088
4.51%
1.85%
ARGENTINA
3470
2.17%
3.31%
S. AFRICA
32002
0.24%
4.05%


Though S&P warned, that next bailout process of Greece would be count as default, but Greece got some relief from IMF. ECB and Chinese authorities hiked rates but Bank of England kept and Australian Reserve Bank kept it unchanged, where as Vietnam went in opposite direction and cut the borrowing cost. Service PMI in Europe missed the expectation but export form Germany recovered more quickly than expected in May. Chinese inflation rose too 3-year high of  6.4% in June, which some experts are saying may be the peak for year 2011. Japan’s current account surplus fell in May due to natural causes, looking at Japanese news it looks to me that even this week’s 2tn YEN  help of Japanese government may not much for them.


Other Markets



COMMODITY
8th-July-2011
7/1/2011-7/8/2011
6/24/2011-7/1/2011




Nymex  (Aug)
96.2
1.32%
4.14%
Brent Crude (Aug)
118.33
5.86%
6.32%
Natural Gas  (Aug)
4.205
-2.45%
1.43%
Gold (Aug)
1541.6
3.97%
-1.21%
Silver (Aug)
36.54
8.42%
-2.73%
Copper (Aug)
4.406
2.56%
4.55%



Us crude supplies fell more than expected which shows rising demand, as a result  Nymex Oil increased this week. Right now $96 is acting as a good support for it. In the upside $102 and then $104 is the level to be watched. Brent crude broke important level of $112 and $116, what I think it may take some time here to test $120 level.
Silver may be in a spot to break a pattern, in coming week it will be more prominent. But as I said in past, it has to break $39 level for any rise.
Gold is still getting resistance at $1550 level, in this level Gold has not shown any strength during last few months. In the support side $1520 level is the immediate target.
Copper showed some good performance during last few days, but it’s last day move was not very encouraging. $4550 in the upside and $4250 in the downside is the immediate target.



Coming week


So I was pretty certain that DOW is going to test 12800 level, though in last day it closed at lower level due to bad job report but I am not totally bearish from here. What I think that couple of days it may show some reaction but last days rise from the low point gave us a signal that we may see some better days. In the downside if it breaks 12400 then I may think differently.
Last week I told that if DAX  is able to break 7600 level then it will negate the bearish pattern, but this week it couldn’t  able to break it. It’s closing figure was far below, at 7400 level. Last day’s figure was not good. I will not astonish if DAX comes down from this level. 7300 is the level that can indicate as support for DAX. If situations improve then it will try to test 7600 level.

BOVESPA is still forming lower highs and lower lows pattern, it couldn’t able to break 64000 level. Now to follow this trend it needs to break 61000 level in coming week.
I have an expectation that any good news may able Shanghai Composite to break 2800 level, this week it able to break it but it close below 2800 level. Now  in spite of rate hike shanghai composite did not react much, this is positive but situation in overall world economy may effect it.  The bearish pattern is still on for Shanghai Composite, in the upside it may test 2900 level if it gets any positive news.
It is good to see that KLSE broke 1580 and then 1590, now from here I want to see that it sustains in this level for any rise from here.  As I said in last day that technical are showing it in overbought zone, so it needs to watch market at this level.



Reports due in coming days


Tuesday. 12th July – US Trade Deficit

Thursday,  14th July – Unemployment Claim, Producer Price Index, Retail Sales

Friday, 15th July – Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Consumer Sentiment.


Friday’s  report from US  is the matter of discussion everywhere but many of us overlooking that in Friday,  3 more banks were shut down by regulators, so number of shut down comes to 51 this year. Some people are finding green light in this, as they are claiming that overall pace of bank failures has slowed as economy is improving. In this moment US needs these type of positive people but what ultimately important, is the safety for investor’s money.




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog



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