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Currency Market review after 19th August, 2011.



There were too much expectation in terms of intervention but Swiss central bank stopped short of announcing temporary peg to EURO. Now strong currency is not only disturbing for Swiss but authorities in Japan is also facing the same music, they tried to intervene but that is not working for long. As long YEN stays below 80 to the dollar it will effect their profits, so there is a chance that Japanese authorities will again intervene in coming days.

CURRENCY
19th-August-2011
8/12/2011-8/19/2011
8/5/2011-8/12/2011




USD
74.009
-0.80%
0.01%
EURO
1.439
1.05%
-0.28%
AUD
1.041
0.57%
-0.95%
YEN
76.245
-0.68%
-2.19%
RUPEE
45.61
0.37%
1.42%
SWISS FRANC
0.786
1.68%
1.31%
S.African RAND
7.189
0.20%
4.13%
Brazilian REAL
1.594
-0.80%
1.26%
Mexican PESO
12.295
-0.09%
2.63%

Some of the Asian currencies led by Indian RUPEE fell this week and that is due the sell-off that is going on in stock markets. In this moment some of the currencies are strongly following the movements in the stock markets.


Coming week

Few days ago I wrote something about EURO (What is the current status of EURO, as on 17th August, 2011 ?  ) and I have still that opinion about EURO.

This week AUD broke it’s initial resistance of 1.04 but unable to maintain it’s up move. As I said in last week that after a sudden fall it must bounce back as such it tried that in this week. Now it has a support at 1.01 and a resistance at around 1.06 level.
After last week fall I was expecting some rise in YEN but it decided to test it’s support at 76.5 level. For any up move it needs to break 79 level.
As I said in last week that unless FRANC breaks 0.80-0.84 level I am not bullish about it’s up move, this week it just try to do that but couldn’t. Now it has an immediate support at 0.765 if it bounce back from this level then it may again try to test 0.80 level, otherwise it will re-test it’s low at 0.73 level.
I am holding same stand about USD as I said in past, unless it breaks 76 level convincingly, I am bearish about it. Now it is moving around 73.5-75 level.
Last week I said that Brazilian REAL may retest 1.58-1.56 levels as such it closed far below that. This week REAL’s move disappoints me as I was expecting some pattern in it for further up move in future. I will wait more to see it’s pattern.
South African RAND and Mexican PESO were flat this week.

Currency market is facing some disturbing situation; unless the main problems are getting solved it is wrong to think about a comfortable situation in currency market.


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .


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