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Stock & Metal market reviews after 19th August, 2011.


Many investors were expecting something from the talk of French and German leaders but they all were disappointed as well as the stock markets, as the leaders did not announce measures to tackle the European debt crisis. But some good news came from Europe as rating agency S&P showed their confidence on France’s AAA rating.


INDEX
19th-August-2011
8/12/2011-8/19/2011
8/5/2011-8/12/2011




DOW
10817
-4.01%
-1.52%
FTSE
5040
-5.26%
1.41%
CAC
3016
-6.13%
-1.98%
DAX
5480
-8.62%
-3.83%
NIKKEI
8719
-2.72%
-3.61%
HANG SENG
19399
-1.12%
-6.33%
AUS
4101
-1.70%
1.63%
SHANGHAI
2534
-2.27%
-1.25%
SENSEX
16141
-4.14%
-2.69%
BOVESPA
52447
-1.91%
0.98%
RUSSIA
5732
-1.76%
-7.84%
INDONESIA
3842
-1.23%
-0.79%
KOSPI
1744
-2.73%
-7.72%
STRAITS
2733
-4.10%
-4.80%
THAI
1069
0.65%
-2.83%
ARGENTINA
2825
-4.75%
-3.29%
S. AFRICA
29601
-0.75%
0.76%


Japan’s economy has contracted less than expected in last quarter and their trade surplus widened by more than expected in July, these may be the indication of recovery in Japan after the natural disaster. Things are not same around the other parts of the globe, as European economic growth slowed more than forecast, German economic growth slowed sharply. Beside this there were some unexpected results like rise in UK unemployment figure and fall in Indian inflation rate in July. After a while Iceland again came into picture as they raised their interest rate to control rising inflation.



Metal Market

As I said in last week that Nymex Oil’s move in last day was not good, as such it fall this week though it did not touch the low of $76. But if stock market remains week in coming week it may follow the lower levels. Natural Gas is still getting good support at $3.90 level and on the upside it has resistance at $4.10 level.

COMMODITY
19th-August-2011
8/12/2011-8/19/2011
8/5/2011-8/12/2011




Nymex  (Sep)
82.86
-2.95%
-1.72%
Natural Gas  (Sep)
3.94
-2.95%
3.01%
Gold (Aug)
1849.2
6.25%
5.54%
Silver (Aug)
42.43
8.48%
2.39%
Copper (Aug)
3.9835
-0.71%
-2.45%


Gold is saying no one can stop me and indeed it is true, as it is rising during 7 week. As long as problems in economy and situation in stock market are improving it will act like this. In last day Silver showed some encouraging move and I will be waiting to see it in coming week. Copper is showing no action at all, unless economic position improves it will react like this and I will not be astonished if in coming days it drops from here with stock markets.


Coming week


Dow Jones was getting resistance at 11800 level, though it not even touched 11600 level. In the lower side it is getting some resistance at 10800 level but if things go wrong it can go to test 10400 level and finally at 10000 level. Last day’s sell-off with volume was not a good sign.
DAX is getting good support at 5400, now if it breaks this then it will get 5200 as good support area. If it rises from here it will test 6000 level in the upside.
BOVESPA couldn’t able to break 53000-54000 level on the upside convincingly, though it able to go 55000 level but later it came down from that level. If it rises from here then it will face resistance at 59000 and on the lower side it can re-test it recent lows.
KLSE can move to fill up the gap it created but it ultimately will follow the global trend. Position of Shanghai Composite is same, as it has a support around 2400 and resistance at 2700 level.




Reports due in coming days


Tuesday, 23rd August, 2011 – New Home Sales

Wednesday, 24th August, 2011 – Durable Goods Orders

Thursday, 25th August, 2011 – Unemployment Claims


Morgan Stanley cuts it’s global growth forecast that is not good at all. I am saying this not because of Europe and US but they cut the growth forecast of China also.
As far as relief rally is concern, I have still a doubt whether there was any relief rally at all after that huge global sale-off !  Last day most of the indexes were down with high volume, which sounds bad technically. One of my friend was telling me that in Friday most of the indexes saw some buying in last few hours, but I have still doubt that how much of those buying are genuine  !




NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .



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