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Week ended 12th August, 2011 – Markets this week.


“Don’t help the problematic Euro-nations, mind your own business” – that was the un-official bottom line of this week’s big fall in French banking stocks. Though later in the week French economic growth report has supported that line. I am not saying that rating agencies were giving threats by selling those shares but definitely some one is there behind the window. The panic were so much that some countries like France, Spain, Italy, Belgium banned short selling to stabilize the market.


INDEX
12th-August-2011
8/5/2011-8/12/2011
7/29/2011-8/5/2011




DOW
11269
-1.52%
-5.75%
FTSE
5320
1.41%
-9.78%
CAC
3213
-1.98%
-10.70%
DAX
5997
-3.83%
-12.88%
NIKKEI
8963
-3.61%
-5.43%
HANG SENG
19620
-6.33%
-6.65%
AUS
4172
1.63%
-7.21%
SHANGHAI
2593
-1.25%
-2.77%
SENSEX
16839
-2.69%
-4.90%
BOVESPA
53473
0.98%
-9.98%
RUSSIA
5835
-7.84%
-7.31%
INDONESIA
3890
-0.79%
-5.06%
KOSPI
1793
-7.72%
-8.90%
STRAITS
2850
-4.80%
-6.11%
THAI
1062
-2.83%
-3.53%
ARGENTINA
2966
-3.29%
-7.64%
S. AFRICA
29826
0.76%
-5.14%

It is no meaning to discuss when these European banks invested in those problematic countries ?  Why someone has selected these time to threat about their investments ?  Perhaps many of us have some of these answers,  is not it ?

China is enjoying their trade surplus but rising inflation is still a threat for them, like other Emerging nations. Factory data in UK, Germane export data as well as Australian unemployment data are not good at all, though investors can get little relief from UK construction data and US retail sales report.



Metal Market

As stock market faced corrections, Nymex Oil also faced some heat but as I said in last week the heat was not so much. Though it bounce back from $76 level but I don’t like last day’s close. What I think that in coming week it may follow stock market. Natural Gas got good support around $3.90 level and unless it break $4.20 level, I am not very bullish about it.


COMMODITY
12th-August-2011
8/5/2011-8/12/2011
7/29/2011-8/5/2011




Nymex  (Sep)
85.38
-1.72%
-9.21%
Brent Crude (Sep)
108.03
-1.22%
-6.31%
Natural Gas  (Sep)
4.06
3.01%
-4.92%
Gold (Aug)
1740.3
5.54%
1.25%
Silver (Aug)
39.11
2.39%
-4.72%
Copper (Aug)
4.012
-2.45%
-8.06%


Gold is still running but I will not be astonished if it come back to test $1660-$1680 level. Silver got the support which I have indicated in last week. This time Silver movement is not satisfactory, it couldn’t able to break $39 level convincingly which I told in past. Last day I told about Copper’s support at $4.050, this week it just broke those headed much lower position. Unless economic scenarios change, I don’t expect much from it.




Coming week

Economic reports are not much encouraging, inflation positions are not improving and also no good news from European debt problem, as additional bail-out plan of Greece has already been questioned by many. Some of the indexes have dropped much in this round, but I did not see much of bounce back. I don’t know may be it will be due in initial days of coming week. I cannot see enough good news for markets to go much higher from this level, though some of these indexes are technically in short-term over-sold condition. Good approach may be quick get in & quick get out, if you have any doubts and better for them who has already invested in this week.

Dow got the support around 10800 level, which I said in past week. It’s bounce back was not good, I expected more may be around 11800 level. Now if it drops from here it will find support around 10400 level and finally the big support is at 10000, on the upside 11800 is the level, where it can get resistance.
DAX got support around 5800 level, though it made lows below 5600. Now 6200 level is good resistance for DAX. On the downside it has a support around 5400 level. DAX has corrected much during this round, but I have already told during few weeks that it has build the bearish pattern and it can go for it at any moment.
BOVESPA got support around 48500 level, it dropped much in these days. If it able to break 53000-54000 level in the upside then it will find resistance around 58000. On the downside if it breaks 48000 level then it can drop much, it next good support is at 42000 level.
Shanghai Composite dropped but it was very less compare to other leading indexes. It has a good resistance around 2700 level and support is around 2400 level.  KLSE has a support around 1440 level and resistance around 1500 level.


Reports due in coming days



Monday, 15th August, 2011 – Housing Market Index

Tuesday, 16th August, 2011 – Housing Starts, Industrial Production.

Wednesday, 17th August, 2911 – Producer Price Index

Thursday, 18th August, 2011 – Unemployment Claim, Consumer Price Index, Existing Home Sales.


One thing worried me that somewhere I saw Bank of America may be selling part of their stake in China Construction bank to build-up their Tier-1 capital and for other reasons, now what can be the effect of these if many institutions try to do the same thing in other Emerging Nations, especially in this moment !

Yesterday I saw a dream, that is divided on some part –

1)     Some officials from S&P has been suffering punishment for calculating wrongly.
2)     Many rating agencies have started to give new ratings to US.
3)     AAA rating has been evaporated from the financial world, now AA+  rating is the highest rating.

Can 3rd one be possible ?  May be in future or may be the process has already started !



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .




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