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Week ended 5th August, 2011 – Markets this week.



In the early days of the week, federal debt deal was good but nothing to cheer. Where as US manufacturing data was not good at all, in the later period of the week Swiss and Japanese effort to control their currencies have negatively effected the market. In the last day US and European market got some positive from employment data but rumors about S&P has negative effect on market. Chinese manufacturing data was not good, as well as Euro-zone PMI AND UK manufacturing data though Chinese non-manufacturing data was good.


INDEX
5th-August-2011
7/29/2011-8/5/2011
7/22/2011-7/29/2011




DOW
11444
-5.75%
-4.24%
FTSE
5246
-9.78%
-2.02%
CAC
3278
-10.70%
-4.45%
DAX
6236
-12.88%
-2.29%
NIKKEI
9299
-5.43%
-2.95%
HANG SENG
20946
-6.65%
-0.01%
AUS
4105
-7.21%
-3.86%
SHANGHAI
2626
-2.77%
-2.49%
SENSEX
17305
-4.90%
-2.80%
BOVESPA
52949
-9.98%
-2.40%
RUSSIA
6332
-7.31%
-1.93%
INDONESIA
3921
-5.06%
0.58%
KOSPI
1943
-8.90%
-1.75%
STRAITS
2994
-6.11%
0.21%
THAI
1093
-3.53%
1.07%
ARGENTINA
3067
-7.64%
-1.04%
S. AFRICA
29601
-5.14%
-2.85%


Metal Market

Nymex Oil has broke it’s support of $90 and plunge more. It looks to me that it may not drop like this fashion in coming week, it may show some side base movement for couple of days. It market recovers then it may re-test $92 level. Same kind of movement can also be expected from Brent Crude. Last week I told that Natural Gas can fall more, though it looks like that it is getting some support around this level.

COMMODITY
5th-August-2011
7/29/2011-8/5/2011
7/22/2011-7/29/2011




Nymex  (Sep)
86.88
-9.21%
-4.17%
Brent Crude (Sep)
109.37
-6.31%
-1.62%
Natural Gas  (Sep)
3.941
-4.92%
-5.14%
Gold (Aug)
1648.8
1.25%
1.67%
Silver (Aug)
38.197
-4.72%
-0.05%
Copper (Aug)
4.113
-8.06%
1.54%

Gold continued it’s upward movement but last few day’s move could be better. Last day I told that Gold is stealing the show, as such Silver dropped this week. Silver has a support in this level but better one is at $37 level. Copper has good support at $4.050 level, unless the economic scenario improves it will be wrong to expect more from Copper now.





Coming week


Now during last couple of weeks I repeatedly told that indexes like DOW, DAX have formed bearish pattern unless it negates that pattern it will face selling. This week it proves the pattern.
Now from here if market faces more sell-off, as it is expected due to S&P downgrade, then stock indexes can see some more red days. But market especially some indexes are very cheap even in this condition, as I said in one of my previous posting this week about FTSE that it will be a good buying opportunity for aggressive investor even in this level but for others it will be good to see couple of days more.
DOW has a support around 11000-10800 level, on the upside it has resistance around 11800 level. For DAX, 5800 can act as a good support, but if it bounces from here then it may test 6800 level. For BOVESPA the fall was sudden and quick, this index will jump faster if market recovers from here.



Reports due in coming days

Tuesday, 9th August, 2011 – Productivity, Fed’s FOMC announcement.
Wednesday, 10th August, 2011 – Wholesale Trade
Thursday, 11th August, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, US Trade Deficit.
Friday, 12th August, 2011 – Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment.


South Korean central bank purchased Gold by diversifying it’s foreign reserve, now if things go this way then we can expect more rise in Gold price in coming future.
Some GDP growth forecasts were not good this week as JP Morgan cut US 3rd quarter growth and  Australian central bank cut it’s forecast for growth, where as GDP figures from Italy and forecast from Spanish Central Bank suggest that future growth will be slow for their countries.
I think Swiss rate cut and Japanese intervention have more to do with this week’s stock market crash, though the S&P effect is due in coming week if already not discounted. Some European indexes have heavily corrected this week where as market like Shanghai Composite has not corrected much, because some of the Emerging markets have already corrected.
Definitely investors must wait for more days, where as for traders opportunities are good. While I was trading I did not see too much interest in buying those hammering stocks, look like investors want more.


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer below this blog .



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