Skip to main content

Stock & Metal market reviews after 2nd September, 2011.


Are we in recession ?  I don’t know, but it is sure that condition is not good at all. Markets are looking for reasons to be down, surely we are very much in bear market. If we see stock indexes,  2%-5% weekly rise, in spite of that investors are not coming forward.

INDEX
2nd-Sep, 2011
8/26/2011-9/2/2011
8/19/2011-8/26/2011




DOW
11240
-0.38%
4.31%
FTSE
5292
3.17%
1.76%
CAC
3148
1.97%
2.35%
DAX
5538
0.01%
1.04%
NIKKEI
8950
1.73%
0.89%
HANG SENG
20212
3.21%
0.94%
AUS
4242
1.00%
2.41%
SHANGHAI
2528
-3.21%
3.07%
SENSEX
16821
6.13%
-1.81%
BOVESPA
56531
5.96%
1.72%
RUSSIA
6060
5.46%
0.24%
INDONESIA
3841
0.00%
-0.02%
KOSPI
1867
5.00%
1.94%
STRAITS
2843
3.45%
0.54%
THAI
1065
2.70%
-2.99%
ARGENTINA
2872
-0.38%
2.05%
S. AFRICA
30518
3.09%
0.00%


US Employers added no net workers in last month which has created lot of panic in last day, if someone is not satisfied with this then there are more, as Japan’s unemployment rate rose in July, manufacturing activity in Euro-Zone shrank in August, manufacturing output in south Korea fell in July while factory out-put of Japan rose less, Philippines economy slowed more than expected in 2nd quarter, European economic confidence fell in August as well as UK’s consumer sentiment for July. Now let talk about the good ones, manufacturing activities in China expanded, German unemployment rate fell in August, Italian business confidence climbed in August. European inflation was steady in August but South Korean and Indian people must eat less to control their food inflation.


Metal Market


Crude market is still performing with the stock market, if market improves then Nymex Oil may try $98 level and on the upside it has a chance to test $82 level. For Brent Crude resistance is at $118 and support is at $106 level. Natural Gas is finding resistance at $4.1 level as I said in past week but if same situation goes on then it may test levels lower than $39.
Gold is again trying to re-test it’s recent high, last day it made a big jump and if things go in same way it may break  $1900 level in coming week. As I said in last week Silver is trying to go test higher levels, in this case level is $44. But like Gold I am not too confident about Silver. I think now investors are less worried about Copper. Unless the economic condition improves we may not see much action in it.



Coming week


US & European stock indexes got the test of US employment data but Asian stock indexes are due for that. So I don’t think the opening will be good for Asian indexes in Monday. But things can change if some developments happen in Europe.

As I said in last week, Dow moved to fill up the gap it created and it bounce back from 11600 level. Again 10800 level is a good support for it. It is very bad to look that Dow did not try to break 11800 level. Now bad economic data did it’s job. But in coming week if situation improves then I will be looking that 11800 level.
On weekly basis DAX’s movement was very very flat. It did even try for 6000 level, on the lower now if it breaks 5400 then 5200 will be the next support level.
BOVESPA’s move was better from others but last day it corrected because of US employment report. Now it can face support at 53000 and on the upside it has initial resistance at 60000 level.
Shanghai Composite is not showing any big movement in either side. As I said in last week it has good support at 2500 but look like it cannot maintain this support, so if it breaks it then it’s next support is at 2400 level. For any rise now first it has to break 2600 level.
As I said in last day KLSE got good support at around 1440 level, in the coming days it may again re-test level. It is good to see that it tested 1480 level in the upside and if situation improves in later part of the coming week it may test 1500 level


Reports due in coming days



Tuesday, 6th September, 2011 – ISM Non Mfg. Index 

Wednesday, 7th September, 2011 – Fed’s Beige Book
Thursday, 8th September, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, US Trade Deficit, Bernanke’s speech.
Friday, 9th September,2011 – Wholesale Trade data



World is going to face recession, British chamber of commerce has downgraded it’s forecast for UK’s economic growth this year. If we think that only developed countries are facing the economic pressure then it will be wrong as weakening growth in India is a big problem, this week’s report shows that economy grew less. Who knows in coming days we may see same things for China also !  These countries are really suffering due to this inflation fever. Though inflation is a cause of worry for different countries but Indian and Korean authority may not hike rates due to surrounding economic condition.
Somewhere I saw that Australian firms spent more money to expand their business and their bureau of statistics said firms are planning to invest further in this year, now this is good sign which may remove concern about slowdown.
While trading I was not satisfied with the moves. Market is in a condition where trading is full of risk. Volume is really a concern. Experts are suggesting to keep the cash but I heard many times that real gainer is that person who buys, when no one does that. But many may be asking where is the bottom ?



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .



Comments

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.