Skip to main content

Weekly Currency market review after 16th September, 2011.


Last week, EURO’s move made lot of expectations but that meeting in Poland and other things made it to fell this week. Investors are not finding any solution for Greek problems, especially problem regarding that bail-out money.


CURRENCY
16th-Sep, 2011
9/9/2011-9/16/2011
9/2/2011-9/9/2011




USD
76.599
-0.76%
3.25%
EURO
1.379
0.95%
-3.80%
AUD
1.036
-1.05%
-1.59%
YEN
76.87
-1.13%
1.27%
RUPEE
47.46
2.32%
1.06%
SWISS FRANC
0.875
-0.90%
12.77%
S.African RAND
7.458
2.47%
2.94%
Brazilian REAL
1.737
3.51%
2.13%
Mexican PESO
13.03
2.76%
2.27%


Some are feeling that even at 1.20, Swiss FRANC is still high and many steps may come in future. Asian currencies continued it’s fall, now it is more than couple of week that these currencies are facing this fall. On one side Geithner & co. is trying to make US dollar cheap but during couple of weeks for most of these emerging nations it is going in opposite direction.



Currency forecast for coming week

 

EURO’s move was little surprising to me, may be it is little short covering rally. It needs to break 1.40 and then 1.42 to show the strength. On the downside it has support at around 1.34 level.
Last week I was suspecting a higher highs and higher lows pattern for  AUD, but by closing below 1.03 it broke that pattern. On the downside 1.01 support level is still intact and on the upside 1.07 is the level that needs to watch. Looking at last two day’s close, I think it may test it’s resistance in coming days.
USD got a good resistance at 78. If European problems reduce in coming days then USD may not make higher highs but looking at the chart I have an impression that it has the possibility to test higher levels. It has a strong support at 76 level.
Look like Swiss FRANC is taking some breath for next move. If situation in Euro-Area improves then it may go more in the upside from here, therefore 1.96 is the next resistance. I was expecting some up movements from YEN but it did the opposite, the move was quite unfamiliar. I think there are some indigenous reasons for these.
During past couple of weeks I was expecting some up movement from Mexican PESO, this week it went in the upside but it is getting some resistance at 13 level. It may test higher levels in future.
I was expecting some up move from Brazilian REAL and if economical situation improves more then it may test it’s support levels.  South African RAND broke a good resistance at 7.30, not it is getting some resistance at 7.45. It is following an uptrend but it may come to test that 7.30 level in coming days.

One of my friend was telling me that in coming years we may see no “EURO” zone in world, I think it is too much of thinking. If you ask me I will say more problems are there with USD, than EURO. If you want to simplify the matter more, then just compare the contributions of USA and Greece in financial world, you will get your answer.



[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

Economical problems are always better option for market than Political problems.

Traders around the world were in better condition in past when market was ruled by European debt crisis (PIIGs) than now when market is facing a situation in gulf region & related refuge problem. Not only European debt crisis is more connected with economics but its effects have created more panic in the market. As a trader in the equity market always I am looking for more volatility in the market & that is better when matter is more connected with economics, obviously this question will not come if it is a world war or something like that.
In coming days market is expecting high volatility in response of Brexit & Fed’s rate hike but as matters are progressing I feel that it may not create that much what media are highlighting. Especially when Britain’s exit may not be sure as we are seeing in different news, I think it may be going to effect their currency too. On the other hand today or tomorrow Fed is going to hike the rate so question may come about their timing.
A new …