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Weekly Currency market review after 16th September, 2011.

Last week, EURO’s move made lot of expectations but that meeting in Poland and other things made it to fell this week. Investors are not finding any solution for Greek problems, especially problem regarding that bail-out money.

16th-Sep, 2011

S.African RAND
Brazilian REAL
Mexican PESO

Some are feeling that even at 1.20, Swiss FRANC is still high and many steps may come in future. Asian currencies continued it’s fall, now it is more than couple of week that these currencies are facing this fall. On one side Geithner & co. is trying to make US dollar cheap but during couple of weeks for most of these emerging nations it is going in opposite direction.

Currency forecast for coming week


EURO’s move was little surprising to me, may be it is little short covering rally. It needs to break 1.40 and then 1.42 to show the strength. On the downside it has support at around 1.34 level.
Last week I was suspecting a higher highs and higher lows pattern for  AUD, but by closing below 1.03 it broke that pattern. On the downside 1.01 support level is still intact and on the upside 1.07 is the level that needs to watch. Looking at last two day’s close, I think it may test it’s resistance in coming days.
USD got a good resistance at 78. If European problems reduce in coming days then USD may not make higher highs but looking at the chart I have an impression that it has the possibility to test higher levels. It has a strong support at 76 level.
Look like Swiss FRANC is taking some breath for next move. If situation in Euro-Area improves then it may go more in the upside from here, therefore 1.96 is the next resistance. I was expecting some up movements from YEN but it did the opposite, the move was quite unfamiliar. I think there are some indigenous reasons for these.
During past couple of weeks I was expecting some up movement from Mexican PESO, this week it went in the upside but it is getting some resistance at 13 level. It may test higher levels in future.
I was expecting some up move from Brazilian REAL and if economical situation improves more then it may test it’s support levels.  South African RAND broke a good resistance at 7.30, not it is getting some resistance at 7.45. It is following an uptrend but it may come to test that 7.30 level in coming days.

One of my friend was telling me that in coming years we may see no “EURO” zone in world, I think it is too much of thinking. If you ask me I will say more problems are there with USD, than EURO. If you want to simplify the matter more, then just compare the contributions of USA and Greece in financial world, you will get your answer.

[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog


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