Skip to main content

Weekly Stock & Metal market reviews after 16th September, 2011.

In early days of this week markets were in panic state after the news that Greece only has cash to operate until October but later it got some relief from Angela Merkel. There were lot of talks going on in Poland, between the mates of both side of the Atlantic but what is the net result ?  oh !   we have to wait little more for that. 

16th-Sep, 2011


But we have not to wait for these rating agencies. They are so active in their work that they have started to downgrade, this time, the banks, with large exposures in Greece. I think it would be better for leaders in Poland to think about these rating agencies. I think they may wake up when these rating agencies start giving rating to these political leaders. But if I see it’s in another angle, then I will say long live rating agencies, because sometime it is very easy to guess their work, adjust the exposures in markets.

Market got some relief by Chinese news of buying Italian bond but here also no one wants to clean other’s waste. Now it becomes little monotonous to talk about the rising inflation figures. So where from market will get good news, rising unemployment rate in UK and rise in the number of person living below the poverty level in US are not good examples. Matters are not good for Emerging countries also, as China posted narrower than expected trade surplus and India is constantly hiking rates to control inflation.

Metal Market

Crude markets are not getting enough issues to rise from here, as Nymex Crude is getting good resistance at $90 where Brent Crude is getting resistance at $114 area. But I think if situation improves in coming week then they may break these levels. Natural Gas is still very flat with downside biased, some turn-around is necessary in this counter.
Gold is getting good amount of resistance at $1900 level. But as I said in last week that it has a support at $1750, so if it maintains that then it may again test $1900 level. But, definitely it is in overbought condition. From previous quarter I have repeatedly said that Gold will be better than Silver, now it is past. I will be waiting for new opportunities in silver in coming days. Copper is making no movement at all and unless the situation changes it will carry this move.

Stock market forecast for Coming week

DOW JONES is making  a bearish pattern though it will be clear in future. It can only negate the pattern by going above 11800 level. If it able to break 11800 level convincingly then it has a chance to go above 12400, but it will much of an expectation as of now.
DAX went below 5200 but as I said in last week that it is trading in small range so it’s drop was less. Now 5800 level is acting as good resistance for it, but last two day’s figures were not encouraging to me. Look like it may again re-test 5200 level.
BOVESPA is getting an obstacle at 58000 level. Look like it is making an ascending triangle, in this situation it may push for more corrections. BOVESPA’s recovery was better from others. If in coming days it breaks 58000 level convincingly then it may rise.
Shanghai Composite is moving in between small range but it is making lower highs and lower lows and look like time is near for it’s breakout.
KLSE has a support at 1430-1450 area, now if it breaks that convincingly then it may drop more. On the upside if it breaks 1460 then it may test higher levels. But expectation of breaking 1480 is too much for now, as world economy doesn’t permit it.

Reports due in coming days

Monday, 19th September, 2011 – Housing Market Index

Tuesday, 20th September, 2011 – Housing starts
Wednesday, 21st September, 2011 – Existing Home Sales, FOMC announcement.
Thursday, 22nd September,2011 – Unemployment claims, leading Economics Ind.

Bad growth forecast from Euro zone will not be a big thing if it would be excluding Germany. Not only developed countries, now even Emerging countries are slowing down.
Coming week everyone must be looking on Bernanke to give something to cheer but as I said in past I am not totally in favor of QE-3 or anything like that. I know many people are there who has similar opinions. Coming weeks are very important for world financial market not only for QE-3 but also a decision needs to take about Greece. No one wants to see a deadlock. Investors are not taking risk even after fall in markets, no one is interested in buying the cheaper stocks. I live in Emerging nation, I talk to many people, they said they are happy to invest in fixed deposits of the banks even in this high inflation rate than to bet on stock market in these circumstances. I don’t think that foreign institutes are going to fine many buyers, if they start selling now !

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .


Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.