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Weekly Stock & Metal market reviews after 16th September, 2011.




In early days of this week markets were in panic state after the news that Greece only has cash to operate until October but later it got some relief from Angela Merkel. There were lot of talks going on in Poland, between the mates of both side of the Atlantic but what is the net result ?  oh !   we have to wait little more for that. 


INDEX
16th-Sep, 2011
9/9/2011-9/16/2011
9/2/2011-9/9/2011




DOW
11509
4.70%
-2.20%
FTSE
5368
2.95%
-1.47%
CAC
3031
1.91%
-5.52%
DAX
5573
7.40%
-6.30%
NIKKEI
8864
1.45%
-2.37%
HANG SENG
19455
-2.06%
-1.71%
AUS
4149
-1.07%
-1.13%
SHANGHAI
2482
-0.60%
-1.22%
SENSEX
16933
0.39%
0.26%
BOVESPA
57210
2.56%
-1.33%
RUSSIA
6163
0.58%
1.10%
INDONESIA
3835
-4.07%
4.08%
KOSPI
1840
1.54%
-2.94%
STRAITS
2789
-1.27%
-0.63%
THAI
1033
-2.73%
-0.28%
ARGENTINA
2750
-0.10%
-4.14%
S. AFRICA
31051
2.00%
-0.25%


But we have not to wait for these rating agencies. They are so active in their work that they have started to downgrade, this time, the banks, with large exposures in Greece. I think it would be better for leaders in Poland to think about these rating agencies. I think they may wake up when these rating agencies start giving rating to these political leaders. But if I see it’s in another angle, then I will say long live rating agencies, because sometime it is very easy to guess their work, adjust the exposures in markets.


Market got some relief by Chinese news of buying Italian bond but here also no one wants to clean other’s waste. Now it becomes little monotonous to talk about the rising inflation figures. So where from market will get good news, rising unemployment rate in UK and rise in the number of person living below the poverty level in US are not good examples. Matters are not good for Emerging countries also, as China posted narrower than expected trade surplus and India is constantly hiking rates to control inflation.


Metal Market

Crude markets are not getting enough issues to rise from here, as Nymex Crude is getting good resistance at $90 where Brent Crude is getting resistance at $114 area. But I think if situation improves in coming week then they may break these levels. Natural Gas is still very flat with downside biased, some turn-around is necessary in this counter.
Gold is getting good amount of resistance at $1900 level. But as I said in last week that it has a support at $1750, so if it maintains that then it may again test $1900 level. But, definitely it is in overbought condition. From previous quarter I have repeatedly said that Gold will be better than Silver, now it is past. I will be waiting for new opportunities in silver in coming days. Copper is making no movement at all and unless the situation changes it will carry this move.



Stock market forecast for Coming week


DOW JONES is making  a bearish pattern though it will be clear in future. It can only negate the pattern by going above 11800 level. If it able to break 11800 level convincingly then it has a chance to go above 12400, but it will much of an expectation as of now.
DAX went below 5200 but as I said in last week that it is trading in small range so it’s drop was less. Now 5800 level is acting as good resistance for it, but last two day’s figures were not encouraging to me. Look like it may again re-test 5200 level.
BOVESPA is getting an obstacle at 58000 level. Look like it is making an ascending triangle, in this situation it may push for more corrections. BOVESPA’s recovery was better from others. If in coming days it breaks 58000 level convincingly then it may rise.
Shanghai Composite is moving in between small range but it is making lower highs and lower lows and look like time is near for it’s breakout.
KLSE has a support at 1430-1450 area, now if it breaks that convincingly then it may drop more. On the upside if it breaks 1460 then it may test higher levels. But expectation of breaking 1480 is too much for now, as world economy doesn’t permit it.


Reports due in coming days


Monday, 19th September, 2011 – Housing Market Index

Tuesday, 20th September, 2011 – Housing starts
Wednesday, 21st September, 2011 – Existing Home Sales, FOMC announcement.
Thursday, 22nd September,2011 – Unemployment claims, leading Economics Ind.


Bad growth forecast from Euro zone will not be a big thing if it would be excluding Germany. Not only developed countries, now even Emerging countries are slowing down.
Coming week everyone must be looking on Bernanke to give something to cheer but as I said in past I am not totally in favor of QE-3 or anything like that. I know many people are there who has similar opinions. Coming weeks are very important for world financial market not only for QE-3 but also a decision needs to take about Greece. No one wants to see a deadlock. Investors are not taking risk even after fall in markets, no one is interested in buying the cheaper stocks. I live in Emerging nation, I talk to many people, they said they are happy to invest in fixed deposits of the banks even in this high inflation rate than to bet on stock market in these circumstances. I don’t think that foreign institutes are going to fine many buyers, if they start selling now !



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .



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