Skip to main content

Weekly Currency market review after 14th October, 2011.


This week there was much of an expectation from EURO, as everyone expecting that leaders will create a way. Last day EURO fell after that S&P downgrade but later it recover grounds. Not only in EURO but currencies like AUD has also shown some actions, after that better employment data.

CURRENCY
14th-Oct, 2011
10/7/2011-10/14/2011
9/30/2011-10/7/2011




USD
76.623
-2.67%
0.22%
EURO
1.387
3.66%
-0.07%
AUD
1.034
5.83%
1.13%
YEN
77.365
0.78%
-0.41%
RUPEE
49.06
-0.14%
0.42%
SWISS FRANC
0.894
-2.29%
0.77%
S.African RAND
7.826
-1.92%
-1.38%
Brazilian REAL
1.734
-2.03%
-5.85%
Mexican PESO
13.231
-1.54%
-3.16%

After that move in EURO, some corrections were due in USD. Most of the Asian currencies gained this week. Some of the nations saw positive inflows in stock market but I have doubts whether they can keep the flows. WON is in lower position against the dollar which are forcing many business to take new steps against the higher cost. Some of the currencies like REAL, PESO and RAND are showing same type of trend during couple of weeks, in this moment everyone is following the global trend.



Currency Market forecast for coming week


EURO broke the lower highs and lower lows pattern by breaking 1.368 level. Now 1.40 area is a good resistance for it. In the downside 1.36 is the immediate support level. Charts says that it may test 1.36 area again but the outcome G-20 meeting can change many things.
By broking 0.99 area AUD cleared it’s resistance, as I was expecting last day. Now 1.06 is a crucial resistance for it but before that it has to break 1.02-1.04 level convincingly. On the downside it has support around 0.99 level.
USD’s moves surprised me this week. Now it is getting some support at 76- 76.50 level, if it breaks this level then it can drop more. Any bad news from G-20 meeting may again bring a new trend for USD, therefore on the upside it can test 78.5 level again.
YEN’s movement was still flat. During last few weeks I was expecting some move from Japanese authority and look like in coming week they are going to do that, so as I said in last week YEN’s target of 81 is still intact.
As EURO goes up Swiss FRANC moved contrary to it. Now it is getting support at 0.895 level and good support is at 0.88 area. On the upside if it breaks 0.905 it can test higher levels if it gets bad news from Euro-area.
As I said in last week that Brazilian REAL can test level up to 1.70, it was just trying that. This week it was trying to make some base around 1.78 area but it failed. So more chance is that it will try lower levels, but if there is change in situation then it may test 1.80 level.
For Mexican PESO, as I said it tried to test 12.80 level. In fact it tried to make some base around 13.4 level but failed. But it is in better condition than REAL. 13.50 level is the resistance level that needs to be watched. For South African RAND the resistance level is 8.00.
In this moment it looks like markets are trying to discount some good things for risk related currencies, Other surrounding like Japanese intervention is supporting this environment. But any surprise news can steal the attraction from these currencies.


[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .



Comments

Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.