Skip to main content

Weekly Currency market review after 28th October, 2011.

Euro advances for the 3rd straight week against the US dollar. After that Euro deal, in Thursday it showed a little bit reaction but again came down in Friday. Looks like investors are not totally satisfied with the Euro-deal.
Japanese authorities know that what is going on with YEN, is purely a speculative activities. What I don’t understand why they are not taking any step !  I am sure that export growth in September is not the reason behind this delay.

28th-Oct, 2011
10/21/2011-10/28/2011 (%)

S.African RAND
Brazilian REAL
Mexican PESO

I was reading somewhere that foreigners are selling US Treasuries (on monthly basis), though I am not sure about that report but it is sure that if those type of events happen then it will not be good for US dollar.

Currency Market forecast for coming week

EURO is in 1.60 and going to test 1.70 against US dollar, can you believe that !  
Some days ago I was looking long-term chart of EURO; I have a feeling that EURO can test much higher levels maybe beyond 1.60 in coming future, obviously now it is beyond our imagination. Later I will try to cover this issue in another post.
Last day I was expecting that EURO can test level above 1.39, now crucial level for it is 1.44. In the lower side if it breaks 1.37 levels then it can test 1.34 areas.
I was expecting that AUD may test 1.06 level, but last day’s move was not good. On the high side it can test level up to 1.1 but here it is finding resistance at 1.07. As things look like from the last day’s move that it can test 1.04 levels again, but in the later days it can again test that 1.07 level in the upside.
I was suspecting that if USD breaks 76 then it can drop more, now there is a chance that it can test level up to 73.5 in the lower side.  On the upside its initial resistance is at 76 levels, if it breaks that then it can again test 79 levels.
Swiss FRANC can test 0.84 levels; on the upside it has resistance at 0.90 levels. Markets are very confused about the movement of YEN and also about Japanese authority. It has an initial resistance at 76.4 areas.
Brazilian REAL is trying to break a crucial level around 1.70. If it breaks 1.66 levels that then it can drop more. It has a resistance at 1.80. If Mexican PESO breaks 12.80 then it can drop more, on the upside it has resistance at 13.40 levels. For South African RAND, if it breaks 7.40 level then it can drop more; its resistance is at 8.00 areas.
As we have seen this week that stock markets rose mostly all parts of the worlds, so if this situation goes on in coming week then I think most of the currencies especially Emerging market currencies will follow the same trend.

[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .


Popular posts from this blog

DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
NOTE: Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

Fed’s rate hike Vs Sovereign rating up gradation

Financial market is very much worried about the rate hike in US, probably this is going to come in coming December. But I think that is not going to change much of the things. Even Fed hikes rate in December it will be not so much, because we are forgetting one thing that interest rate in US is around zero so even they hike rate by 0.25-50% basis points (at most) in this year that will not be enough cause for Dollars to change their locations around the world especially markets have already discounted this coming rate hike in US.

A new disaster is coming in EU banking sector, whom to blame, big Audit firms!

First I was thinking what should be the title of this posting? Will it be good if I write that big audit firms set the time for EU bank collapse! If someone is thinking that financial crisis is over then think twice because the coming EU banking crisis is no way less than 2008 financial crisis. The time bomb will explode at some point of time in future, the time has not yet set for it. In that tsunami, forget about the smaller if any major banks collapse then I will not be surprise.