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Weekly Currency market review after 28th October, 2011.


Euro advances for the 3rd straight week against the US dollar. After that Euro deal, in Thursday it showed a little bit reaction but again came down in Friday. Looks like investors are not totally satisfied with the Euro-deal.
Japanese authorities know that what is going on with YEN, is purely a speculative activities. What I don’t understand why they are not taking any step !  I am sure that export growth in September is not the reason behind this delay.

CURRENCY
28th-Oct, 2011
10/21/2011-10/28/2011 (%)
10/14/2011-10/21/2011




USD
75.089
-1.709536
0.29%
EURO
1.415
1.87185025
-0.14%
AUD
1.07
3.08285164
-0.38%
YEN
75.76
-0.4860108
1.59%
RUPEE
48.82
-2.4770276
-2.03%
SWISS FRANC
0.862
-2.3782559
1.23%
S.African RAND
7.714
-3.9113104
-2.58%
Brazilian REAL
1.673
-5.7464789
-2.36%
Mexican PESO
12.996
-4.7981833
-3.17%

I was reading somewhere that foreigners are selling US Treasuries (on monthly basis), though I am not sure about that report but it is sure that if those type of events happen then it will not be good for US dollar.



Currency Market forecast for coming week

EURO is in 1.60 and going to test 1.70 against US dollar, can you believe that !  
Some days ago I was looking long-term chart of EURO; I have a feeling that EURO can test much higher levels maybe beyond 1.60 in coming future, obviously now it is beyond our imagination. Later I will try to cover this issue in another post.
Last day I was expecting that EURO can test level above 1.39, now crucial level for it is 1.44. In the lower side if it breaks 1.37 levels then it can test 1.34 areas.
I was expecting that AUD may test 1.06 level, but last day’s move was not good. On the high side it can test level up to 1.1 but here it is finding resistance at 1.07. As things look like from the last day’s move that it can test 1.04 levels again, but in the later days it can again test that 1.07 level in the upside.
I was suspecting that if USD breaks 76 then it can drop more, now there is a chance that it can test level up to 73.5 in the lower side.  On the upside its initial resistance is at 76 levels, if it breaks that then it can again test 79 levels.
Swiss FRANC can test 0.84 levels; on the upside it has resistance at 0.90 levels. Markets are very confused about the movement of YEN and also about Japanese authority. It has an initial resistance at 76.4 areas.
Brazilian REAL is trying to break a crucial level around 1.70. If it breaks 1.66 levels that then it can drop more. It has a resistance at 1.80. If Mexican PESO breaks 12.80 then it can drop more, on the upside it has resistance at 13.40 levels. For South African RAND, if it breaks 7.40 level then it can drop more; its resistance is at 8.00 areas.
As we have seen this week that stock markets rose mostly all parts of the worlds, so if this situation goes on in coming week then I think most of the currencies especially Emerging market currencies will follow the same trend.



[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .

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