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Weekly Stock & Metal market reviews after 14th October, 2011.


Is it Sovereign Debt problem or Banking crisis !  Someone who is new may make a mistake this week.
Earlier Fitch cut the rating of banks in UK, now the biggies like UBS is in the list. Deutsche bank, Goldman Sachs are in the list for future downgrade. Last week Fitch cut Spain’s rating, this week it was S&P. These rating agencies opened their account in this phase, by downgrading US and who knows tomorrow they may downgrade France, Germany !  and if not then at least UK !
INDEX
14th-Oct, 2011
10/7/2011-10/14/2011
9/30/2011-10/7/2011




DOW
11644
4.87%
1.74%
FTSE
5466
3.07%
3.41%
CAC
3217
3.94%
3.82%
DAX
5967
5.14%
3.14%
NIKKEI
8747
1.65%
-1.09%
HANG SENG
18501
4.48%
0.65%
AUS
4205
1.03%
3.84%
SHANGHAI
2431
3.05%
0.00%
SENSEX
17082
5.23%
-1.34%
BOVESPA
55030
7.39%
-2.06%
RUSSIA
5854
5.11%
-2.29%
INDONESIA
3664
6.97%
-3.49%
KOSPI
1835
4.32%
-0.56%
STRAITS
2744
3.93%
-1.30%
THAI
955.81
5.12%
-0.76%
ARGENTINA
2717
16.86%
-5.60%

Some top European stock indexes, Dow and Australian stock index were rising for 3 consecutive weeks, though Emerging market indexes made a huge gain this week.
Retail sales for September rose in US but Widening trade gap with China is still a problem for them. Indian & Chinese inflation fever reduces a bit, but they need more. On the other side, problems in UK are still rising day by day.



Metal Market

Chinese tax on Oil and Natural Gas may effect their price in future. Nymex Crude (Dec) couldn’t able to break $90 level which I talked last week. Last day’s move was better and coming days it may again try that level, provided that market condition remains the same or some better news comes from Euro area. Same kind of moves came in Brent (Dec) Crude too. For it level is $114 in the upside and it has resistance at $106. Natural Gas showed some flat movements but in the last day it try to recover some grounds. It’s immediate resistance is at $3.90 and then at $4.3 level.
Gold was flat this week, I am expecting some more corrections in it, may be around $1500 level and chart pattern also supports that. On the other hand Gold is testing $1680 resistance level. Silver is also like Gold, and remain flat this week. New moves in Silver will come if it able to break $38 level. Copper also follow the precious metals and in coming days it may test $3.50 level, it’s support is at $3.10 level.



Stock market (Index) forecast for Coming week

In coming week, I am not sure whether market will move substantially in either side. What I think that market will choose it’s path after that meeting in 23rd October, unless a new thing comes up.
DOW is moving around the same upside range of 11200-11800. Last few days moves showed that it is in uncertain zone. If situation deteriorates then it may drop below 11200 levels and on the upside it will face hard time to break 11600-11800 level.
As I said in last week that chart pattern says that DAX has a chance to go higher levels if it break 5800, this week it just proved that. Now it is getting resistance around 6000 level, it needs to break this if it wants to set a new trend. Good outcomes from the meeting of the political leaders may give that incentive to break this level. But chart says now it can re-test 5800 level again in the downside and if it gets more bad news then it can drop more.
Though BOVESPA broke the 54000 resistance but I was expecting different thing. Now it can test up to 57000 provided it breaks 55000 level convincingly. On the downside if it breaks 53000 level then it may again test level below 51000.
Shanghai Composite is getting some king of resistance at 2440, if it able to break this level then it may test 2480 level. In the downside it has support around 2380 level and if things get worse it can test 2300 level.
KLSE is close to break a crucial level of 1450-1500. If it able to break this convincingly then we can expect renewed interest on it. On the downside it may retest upto1300 level but before that immediate support is at below1400 level.




Reports due in coming days

Monday, 17th October, 2011 – Industrial Production
Tuesday, 18th October, 2011 – Producer Price Index, Housing Market Index.
Wednesday, 19th October, 2011 – Consumer Price Index, Housing Starts, Fed’s Beige Book.
Thursday, 20th October, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, Existing Home Sales, Phila. Fed Index. Leading Economic Indicators.

Some are forecasting a steep slowdown for German economy, I think in this moment any bad thing for German economy will create a bigger problem for Euro area. Now Germany is not alone Singapore also cut it’s growth forecast for 2011. Leaders are debating about strengthening of IMF but I think it will be better if they think beyond Greek loan, what about the biggies like Spain!    Will it be affordable?
Before year end some rise in stock market are due. I don’t know whether this is the last run of the year but it is sure that most of the indexes are in crucial position, from where they can turn in either side.



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .



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