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Stock market reviews (weekly) after 25th November, 2011.

Belgium, Hungary, Egypt, Portugal, France, Japan all were becoming the pray of rating agencies. Rating change and threat of rating change of these countries made a new kind of tension in stock markets around the world. Markets were also damaged by the ongoing Euro-zone debt fever. Some of the Emerging markets are facing 4th consecutive negative week.

11/18/2011-11/25/2011 (%)
11/11/2011-11/18/2011 (%)


German business sentiment rose in November, which is better for them but reduction in growth forecast is not a good indication. They may be expecting more growth from domestic economy in coming future. But slower growth in US economy, shrank in European service and manufacturing, fall in Japanese export and disturbing sign from china, which are reflecting sure sign of global slowdown.

Stock market (Index) forecast for Coming week

Some positives were coming but those downgrades make market more vulnerable for further drop in coming days. Unless funding problems get any solution, Euro problem will not end. Politicians must try to solve this problem as soon as possible, before it becomes too late. And as things are going on in US, it looks like that they will not decide major issues before election.
DOW is trying to break 11400 levels, last day I said that worst level will be 10800, and I still maintain that level. Chart pattern says that we may see a short-term reversal but it will get resistance at 11600. In the above, resistance at 12200 levels is still existing.
DAX is testing 5200 support level which I told in last week; if it breaks this 5000-5200 level convincingly then things can be worse. On the upside it has resistance at 6200. I still think, it may react in coming future (may be not in coming days) on that bullish pattern which it is trying to make.
I was expecting that Shanghai Composite may try that 2490 level but it selected the southern side. It has a support level of 2300 in the downside; on the upside it has resistance at 2450.
In spite of a bullish pattern BOVESPA chooses the exception. It is still holding that 56000-57000 level, if it breaks that then it will get support at 53000-54000. The worst level can be below 50000. In the upside it will get resistance at 60000.
This week STRAITS TIME was trying to break 2700 support level. I am still holding my last week stand about STARITS TIME. Unless it broke 2500-2530 range, I will be expecting up move in coming future. But if it breaks that 2500-2530 level then it can drop more.

 Reports due in coming days (from US)

Monday, 28th November, 2011 –  New Home Sales
Tuesday, 29th November, 2011 – Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday, 30th November, 2011 – ADP Job Reports, Productivity, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Fed’s Beige Book.

Thursday, 1st December, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg, Index, Construction Spending, Auto Sales All Day.

Friday, 2nd December, 2011 – Labor Department Monthly Job Report

In past two years investors bought shares in the month of December, now many are expecting that history will be repeated again. It is very difficult to understand whether we are going to see another bad period through Euro-area and US, or current time is a good buying opportunity. Technical indicators are showing that most of the stock index are in over-sold condition, but people are not buying because of situation in Greece, Italy……Spain, ……….US…………
One mathematical figure is in the mind of investors, that is 2008–2009 lows. What I think though surroundings are showing that market may drop more but I think suddenly if any magic happens in Euro-area, then it will take very less time for market to begin a new journey. It is very hard to find a bottom. Some stocks are beaten down by 20%–30%; some are showing their life lows, if those are not a good buy, then what will be!

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .


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DAX forecast for coming week ended 15th March, 2013.

This week was very good for Dax, though it is getting resistance at 8100 range. Now it has a chance to test downside again. I think even if Dax tests lower levels, it has more chance to bounce back from around 7800 range and therefore it will again test upside.

On the other hand if it shows flat movements around 8000 range in initial days of the coming week then there is a chance that it may take a decisive call in later days. Considering the recent trends it has the chance to test higher levels may be around 8200 but that will be a very aggressive call after taking in to account the movement from last December. I will worry about the downside when Dax will be testing levels below 7600 ranges.
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