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Weekly Currency market review after 4th November, 2011.

The trend in currency market was completely opposite, what it was in last week. All the equations changed due to that Greece referendum news, currencies especially effected much in those early days of the week.

10/28/2011-11/4/2011 (%)
10/21/2011-10/28/2011 (%)

S.African RAND
Brazilian REAL
Mexican PESO

Japanese authority at last took some step which was long due, but is it enough !  As we know that YEN rose not on fundamental basis but on speculation, due to concern about EURO and USD. Now this intervention will definitely provide some short-term support but I have doubt about it’s long-term effect.

Currency Market forecast for coming week

Volatility in the financial market will continue unless the situation changes, at least to some extent.
1.42-1.44 is a good resistance for EURO and in the lower side unless it breaks 1.32 level there is a chance that it may test that 1.42-1.44 level.
Last week I was expecting that AUD may test 1.04 level and it went more, but I was expecting more up move in the later part of the week but it did not. Now it is getting support at 1.02-1.04 level, if it breaks that then it can drop more. In the upside it has strong resistance at 1.10 but before that it has to cross 1.07 first. On daily chart it is making a pattern which indicates that it will move more in the upside in coming future.
In the early days of this week USD’s move was quick but later it was flat in spite of the fact that it broke 76 level. For USD 79 in the upside and 73.5 in the downside are two important levels and it has two intermediary levels of 76 and 77.5.
YEN’s move was quite expected, now it’s resistance is at 78.5 level and in the downside it has support at 77.5 level.
REAL, PESO AND RAND is forming same type of pattern. For REAL it has resistance around 1.80 and support at 1.72. If it doesn’t able to break 1.76-1.80 level in coming days then it will drop to test below 1.67 level in the downside.
Mexican PESO is testing 13.40 level. If it doesn’t break 13.70 in coming days then it will try to go below 13 level.
I was talking about 7.40 support level for South African RAND but it got support at 7.7 level. On the upside it tested much below than it’s resistance of 8.4.  During past couple of week it is making lower highs and lower low pattern, which indicates that it may drop more if it unable to break 8.20 level in coming days.

[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .


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