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Weekly Currency market review after 18th November, 2011.


EURO sank as bond market tension spreads in the Euro-zone, but later it recovered to some extent. EURO also suffers one of it's biggest loss against YEN, situation was not good for AUD too. If situation doesn’t change in coming days, it will not be good for US. In this moment, they at least do not want to make their export uncompetitive.

CURRENCY  ( $ )
18-Nov,2011
11/11/2011-11/18/2011 (%)
11/4/2011-11/11/2011 (%)




USD
78.023
1.4
-0.02
EURO
1.352
-1.67
-0.29
AUD
1.001
-2.53
-0.96
YEN
76.9
-0.22
-1.41
RUPEE
51.35
2.14
2.42
SWISS FRANC
0.916
1.89
1.23
S.African RAND
8.185
3.25
0.44
Brazilian REAL
1.778
2.06
-0.62
Mexican PESO
13.719
1.74
0.074

Asian countries were similar to that Mexico and Brazil, as their currencies fell for 3rd week. Indian rupee weakens to such an extent which was last seen in March, 2009. In coming days many Central banks may intervene.


Currency Market forecast for coming week

EURO got the support of 1.35. Now it has the target of 1.38 – 1.39 in the upside which it struggles to break in last few weeks. If somehow it able to break that then it will be testing 1.42 level in the upside. In the downside it has strong support at 1.34 and if it breaks that then it will be testing 1.30 level.
USD is out of that 76 – 77.5 range but it is still residing in the broader zone of 73.5 – 80 levels. What I think it will move around this zone unless some clear indication comes either from Euro-zone or from US Fed.
AUD broke crucial 1.02 level but I need more confirmation on this move. It looks to me quite indecision situation in the chart. Few weeks ago I was talking that AUD is making a pattern for up move, I am still holding that view unless it breaks  0.94 level in the downside.
Japanese YEN was flat this week, if situation in Euro-area improves then we can see it to test 78 level, otherwise it has chance to test lower levels from here. Swiss FRANC is getting resistance at 0.92 and if situation improves it may cross this level. In the downside it has support at 0.895 and then at 0.86.
Brazilian REAL is still moving in that 1.75 – 1.80 range. In the downside it has support at 1.74, if it breaks that then it can test lower levels. In the upside it has resistance at 1.88 but before that it has to break 1.80 in the upside.
Last week I was talking that if RAND does not break 8.20 then it is still following lower highs and lower lows pattern, but by breaking 8.10 it gives a signal that it may try to change that pattern. In the downside it has support at 7.80. Position is similar for Mexican PESO, for it the resistance level is 13.70 and in the downside it has support around 13.3.



[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop. All quotes are against US$, unless specifically told.]



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .







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