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Weekly Stock & Commodity market reviews after 4th November, 2011.



There were much better news this week like rate cut by ECB, better unemployment report from US but all of them were overshadowed by that Greek episode. Financial markets were also expecting something from US Fed, but they were also disappointed.

INDEX
4-Nov,2011
10/28/2011-11/4/2011 (%)
10/21/2011-10/28/2011 (%)




DOW
11983
-2.02
3.58
FTSE
5527.16
-3.06
3.89
CAC
3123.55
-6.70
5.58
DAX
5973.57
-5.86
6.29
NIKKEI
8801.4
-2.74
4.28
HANG SENG
19842.79
-0.88
11.06
AUS
4281.1
-1.65
3.56
SHANGHAI
2528.29
2.23
6.73
SENSEX
17562.61
-1.35
6.07
BOVESPA
58669.92
-1.41
7.70
RUSSIA
6194.61
-0.47
5.31
INDONESIA
3783.63
-1.18
5.77
KOSPI
1928.41
-0.03
4.95
STRAITS
2848.24
-1.95
7.11
THAI
957.31
-1.63
6.20
ARGENTINA
2761.36
-8.41
7.79


Markets were too volatile this week but Hang Seng was little different from others. Many companies like MF global, Commerzbank, BNP paribus are the victim of this Greek debt problem. Many reports were not good this week, as Chinese and Euro-zone PMIs dropped this week, where unemployment figure rose in Germany.




Oil & Metal market forecast for coming week

Nymex Oil (Dec) has maintained it’s support at $90 level and on the upside it’s resistance at $96 is still intact. For Brent (Dec) support at $108 and resistance at $112 is intact. Here Brent (Dec) is showing more chance of rise than Nymex (Dec). Natural Gas (Dec) is once again in it’s earlier level, last week I was suspecting about it’s up move. Now it has more chance of going down than up.
Last week I told that Gold (Nov) can re-test $1680 level again, now after testing that level it looks like that Gold is following a channel. It is sure that if Gold break $1600-$1640 level then it can drop more, as at past I was expecting Gold to touch $1500 level but it did not. If we consider that Gold is following a channel, then that channel indicates that it may again re-test $1680 level in coming days. I don’t know whether Gold will touch $2000 in coming future but it is sure that it has a more chance to rise than drop from this level. Like Gold, Silver has also tested $33 support level which I mentioned in last week. But I am not sure about Silver’s chart pattern; looks like it will break-out in coming days. Copper (Dec) also maintained it’s resistance of $3.7 and support of $3.5. Though it is in the early stage but looks like it is making higher highs and higher lows. $3.80 is a good resistance for it and on the down side it has support at $3.40 level.



Stock market (Index) forecast for Coming week

Asian market are still due to react on that Greek confidence vote and later events. I don’t think there were much improvement in markets from last week, so market will be volatile in coming days. Actually in these days, it is becoming very difficult to predict about the market.
This week DOW got the support at around 11500 and now 11950-12000 level is important for it. On the upside it has resistance at 12500 level.
I was expecting that DAX may test 6000 level but it dropped more. Later in the period it went up to fill the gap it created. Now it has support at 5800 level and resistance at 6400 level. If it breaks 5800 level then it can drop more. What I think if political and economical things remain same then DAX will maintain 5800 level and this 5800-6400 is the range, where we can see DAX in coming days.
BOVESPA’s move was quite similar and it’s support 56000-57000 level is still intact, if it breaks that then it can test 53000 level. On the upside 64000 is still a target it can test in coming days.
Last week I was expecting that Shanghai Composite will rise from here and it may test level up to 2600, though it rose less than that. Last few day’s move was supported by volume which indicate more rise in the upside. But some technical indicators are indicating that it is in short-term overbought condition, so there is a chance that it may test 2450 level.



Reports due in coming days

Monday, 7th November, 2011 – Consumer Credit
Wednesday, 9th November, 2011 – Bernanke  Speaks
Thursday, 10th November, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, US Trade Deficit.

Friday, 11th November, 2011 – Consumer Sentiment Index

There are lots of challenges in coming days, like forming unity government in Greece, then how they are going to deal with those austerity measures and bailout fund. In Italy as I said many times in past that Silvio Berlusconi is not in a good position and many are not comfortable with their austerity measures,  …………………… the list can be long !    G20  had agreed to boost the resource of IMF but I am interested to see how Euro leaders increase the fund of EFSF !
In spite all of these Euro-zone problems, I still think that if US recovers then all of these problems will disappear from the headline news. Here, though we are getting some better reports from US, but I am little confuse about those when I read that warning of ILO about deeper job recession. ILO warned that it will take at least 5 years for employment in advanced economies to return in pre-crisis levels.



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .



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