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Currency market review (weekly) after 23rd December, 2011.


I think people who are shorting the EUROs may be little nervous after ECB’s cheaper loan news. Now for 3-years many Euro-zone banks get some solution of their funding problem. Last two days of this week were better for EURO, in the absence of any major negative news from Euro zone.


CURRENCY  ( $ )
23-Dec,2011
12/16/2011-12/23/2011 (%)
12/9/2011-12/16/2011 (%)




USD
79.994
-0.32
2.06
EURO
1.304
0
-2.54
AUD
1.014
1.8
-2.44
YEN
78.08
0.47
0.11
RUPEE
52.72
-0.17
1.12
SWISS FRANC
0.936
0
1.29
S.African RAND
8.144
-2.79
3.73
Brazilian REAL
1.861
0.54
2.54
Mexican PESO
13.83
-0.18
2.1

After two positive weeks USD closed this week in red. In early days of the week, South Korean WON tumbled in the news of North Korean leaders.



Currency Market forecast for coming week

Most of the currencies were flat this week and this trend may continue as it is a holiday season, so volume may be less. It is better not to take any aggressive moves in coming days.

EURO was flat; this is interesting considering that cheaper loan of ECB. This clearly suggests that EURO is in pressure. As I said in last week that it may take some time to act on its pattern. So in the upside it is 1.34 and in the downside it has the target of 1.15.
Last few days closing were not good for AUD. So the pattern which I said during last few week is still there for it. In the upside it can trigger the pattern at 1.07 and in the downside it is 0.98-0.99.
Last week I was expecting that USD has more chance to go in the upside to test 81.5 level but it selected to test lower supports. But I still believe on those levels, so in the downside it is 78-78.5 and in the upside it is 81.5.
Japanese YEN is still in that 78 zone and I still think it will break that level. Last week I was expecting that Swiss FRANC can test that 93 support level. It looks like it may again test lower support of 0.91 and in the upside it has resistance at around 0.95 level.
Brazilian REAL was flat this week. Last week I told that it has a chance to test lower supports but ultimately it will test higher levels. So it may be ready to act in coming year.
I was not sure about South African RANDs up movement as I said in last week; there was a chance that it may test lower levels, now it has support at 8.00 and the better one at 7.80. In the upside it has resistance at 8.40. Actually looks like it can react in both side, but I think it has more chance to go at higher levels.


[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]



NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .



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