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Stock market reviews (weekly) after 23rd December, 2011.


This week starts with death news of North Korean leader but later it got better news from Euro area. On the other hand better reports are coming from US, which is making much up movements for US stock indexes.

INDEX
23-Dec,2011
12/16/2011-12/23/2011 (%)
12/9/2011-12/16/2011 (%)




DOW
12294
3.6
-2.6
FTSE
5512.7
2.32
-2.56
CAC
3102.09
4.36
-6.3
DAX
5878.93
3.1
-4.75
NIKKEI
8395.16
-0.07
-1.57
HANG SENG
18629.17
1.88
-1.61
AUS
4090.8
-1.64
-1.04
SHANGHAI
2204.78
-0.9
-3.9
SENSEX
15738.7
1.59
-4.45
BOVESPA
57701.07
2.85
-3.67
RUSSIA
5682.16
-1.17
-0.62
INDONESIA
3797.15
0.76
0.23
KOSPI
1867.22
1.48
-1.85
STRAITS
2676.47
0.64
-1.31
THAI
1037.37
0.32
0.005
ARGENTINA
2466.7
1.36
-4.87

Hungary again raised interest rate which is quite interesting when others like ECB and Sweden cut the interest rate. Italian economy shrank in September quarter, where as consumer confidence fell in December but French economic output grew less which is a concern for them considering the rating threats. Japanese government estimates showed that economy will shrink by 0.1% in the year ended march and this may be true because their exports have fallen again.



Stock market (Index) forecast for Coming week

Rating threats of S&P and others are still due. Most of the traders will be out of the market in coming days due to festival season, so there will be less volume in the market.

Last week I was telling that 11600-12200 is important level for DOW. It is trying to cross 12200 level but lack of volume may become an obstacle for it. The bullish pattern is still on for it, but we may see DOW testing 12600-12800, in coming year. Due to lack of volume it may be flat in coming days. In the downside it has support at 11800.
DAX is close to test that 6200 level but I have doubt that it may not do that in this year. I am still with my earlier stand which is at 6200 in the upside and 5300-5400 in the downside.
This week BOVESPA’s moves is again creating hope of testing 59000 level, whereby it can act on the bullish pattern it is creating. In the downside if it breaks 54000-55000 then it may trigger a bearish pattern.
Shanghai Composite was flat this week; it may be not showing much reaction in the downside because of less volume. But it can. I was expecting some reversal from it, but it disappointed me, though last two days were better. In coming days it will face resistance at 2300 and support at 2000.
STRAITS TIME was very close to trigger the bearish pattern, but last few days were better. If better news comes from Euro zone then it may not react on that bearish pattern, therefore I will be looking to trigger the bullish pattern at 2900 level. Right now it is very vulnerable to any bad news.



Reports due in coming days (from US)
Tuesday, 27th December, 2011 – Housing Price Index, Consumer Confidence.
Wednesday, 28th December, 2011 –T-Bill Auction

Thursday, 29th December, 2011 – Unemployment Claims, Pending Home Sales.

Friday, 30th December, 2011 – Chicago PMI


ECB gave cheaper loans to banks but time will say how successful it is. On the other hand many are expecting that US will overcome the Euro zone problem, indeed if it can….


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog .


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