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Currency market review (weekly) after 3rd February, 2012.


Chinese factor helped AUD to slide after reaching five month high though it completed its 7th straight week gains with the help of better US employment report.
Swiss FRANC weakened after some remark came from SNB. They have a reserve of nearly $280 bn, now time will say how much they will use of that reserve if FRANC touches 1.20 against EURO.

Currencies
3rd Feb, 2012
1/27/2011-2/03/2012 (%)
1/20/2011-1/27/2012 (%)




USD
78.924
0.03
-1.65
EURO/USD
1.316
-0.45
2.24
AUD/USD
1.077
1.03
1.72
USD/JPY
76.585
-0.19
-0.49
USD/RUPEE
48.96
-1.37
-1.37
Swiss FRANC
0.92
0.11
-1.61
S.African RAND
7.514
-3.06
-2.49
Brazilian REAL
1.715
-1.61
-1.13
Mexican PESO
12.652
-1.98
-2.05

Global economic recovery is showing inflows of fund in Asian countries; as a result most of their currencies rose this week. In spite of central bank intervention Brazilian REAL climbed against US dollar.



Currency market forecast for coming week.

EURO is holding that 1.32 level, this is because no new news is coming from Euro zone or better to say Greece debt talk. It is in an uncertain zone, so in the upside1.38 is important resistance level for it but before that it has to break 1.34. If things remain same or better then it can test higher levels. That 1.15 level is still on for it but if things improve then it may not test that level.
AUD is in overbought position, so in spite of a chance of going more in the upside it has also a chance to correct in coming days. It has already performed in a bullish pattern which it formed during last few months; now it is still in another pattern, from where it can go more in the upside. Here I must stay that 1.07-1.08 is very important for it. Now since it is in overbought position it may drop a bit so therefore 1.04 and 1.02 are important support levels for it.
USD has not shown much movement, now it can test 78 and then 76.5 level. There is a chance of reversal; therefore it may test level below 81.50. If that short-term reversal happen then it will make a pattern from where it can drop more in future.
Japanese YEN is still in the range of 76-78 level. I still think that it can break 78 level in the above, but things will be different if it drops below 76.
It looks to me that Swiss FRANC may go more in the upside in coming days. There for it has resistance at 0.94 and then at 0.96. In the downside if it breaks 0.91 then it may test level up to 0.88 and then 0.86.
Brazilian REAL broke the support of 1.74 and it is gradually dropping towards its trigger point of 1.673. Now if it tests that level then it has a chance to drop more in coming days, because then it will complete a bearish pattern. But if it somehow reverses its position then it will get resistance at 1.73.
South African RAND broke a good support of 7.7, now if it breaks 7.4 then it can go below 7. It is falling from long so some reversal may come. If it goes up then it may get resistance at 7.9-8.0 levels.



[Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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