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Currency market review (weekly) after 17th February, 2012.


Chinese news affected the EURO this week but Greece issue was the major contributor. Market is discounting that European authorities may release the bail-out fund for Greece on 20th February.

Currencies
17th Feb, 2012
2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)
2/03/2011-2/10/2012 (%)




USD
79.331
0.41
0.1
EURO/USD
1.314
-0.38
0.23
AUD/USD
1.071
0.37
-0.93
USD/JPY
79.36
2.14
1.46
USD/RUPEE
49.21
-0.87
1.39
Swiss FRANC
0.918
0.88
-1.09
S.African RAND
7.727
-0.21
3.05
Brazilian REAL
1.714
-0.75
0.69
Mexican PESO
12.788
-0.06
1.19

AUD rose after better employment report. Asian currencies dropped after Moody’s downgrade, foreign inflows are also a matter for these nations. Stimulus of bank of Japan helped YEN to drop against dollar.



Currency market forecast for coming week.

EURO is not showing any big moves in either direction, look like it is waiting for Greece outcomes. In coming days it is expected to move according with the outcomes from Greece. So if it breaks 1.34 then it has a chance to test up to 1.40 level. In the down side it may again test 1.27 level and that 1.15 level is still open for it. I think if Greece gives some good solution then it may not test that 1.15 level.
For AUD, I will be looking to 1.08 level. I still feel that if it breaks 1.08 level convincingly then it can go more in the upside. In spite of a big up move during couple of months, technical indicators say that it can go more. In the downside it has immediate support at 1.06 and then at 1.04.
I am still holding my view about USD. I have a feeling that this reversal may not go more, and then it is making a pattern from where it can drop more in coming days. Unless it goes above 81.50, I will maintain that view. Now if it reacts on that pattern then USD’s next important level is 75, though it has initial supports at 78 and then in 76.5.
During couple of week, I repeatedly said that YEN can break 78 level, this week it just proved it. Now I think it can go around 80-81 level. On the other side if it drops then it will get resistance around 78.
If Swiss FRANC breaks 0.91 then it has a chance to go up to 0.87 level. On the other hand it is facing hard times to cross 0.93 level.
Brazilian REAL was flat this week, still there are lot of uncertainties. It will get resistance at 1.78. During last few months I was talking about that 1.90 level and moves more in the upside, looking at recent developments I think it is too difficult for now but option is still open. On the other hand that trigger point of 1.673 is still open for it, from where it can drop more.
South African RAND was trying to test that 7.9-8.0 level but it closed far below it. Look like it is again going to try lower levels. So in the downside if it breaks 7.4 then it can go below 7.0.


[Weekly forecast for all currencies are given against US dollar. Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it is same in meaning.]


NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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