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Currency market review (weekly) after 24th February, 2012.


This week it was almost a one-way move for EURO. It also got supports from its derivative data, which showed relative better picture for it. Look like safe heaven currencies may face changes in the environment in coming days.

Currencies
24th Feb, 2012
2/17/2011-2/24/2012 (%)
2/10/2011-2/17/2012 (%)




USD
78.4
-1.17
0.41
EURO/USD
1.345
2.36
-0.38
AUD/USD
1.069
-0.19
0.37
USD/JPY
80.685
1.67
2.14
USD/RUPEE
49.06
-0.3
-0.87
Swiss FRANC
0.895
-2.51
0.88
S.African RAND
7.584
-1.85
-0.21
Brazilian REAL
1.71
-0.23
-0.75
Mexican PESO
12.899
0.87
-0.06

RBA minutes, Chinese manufacturing data and later Fitch downgrade effected AUD, it rose for 8th straight week against YEN.  New aid news for Greece failed to affect most of the Asian currencies, but it is a better environment for Japanese exporters as they must be expecting more in coming days.



Currency market forecast for coming week.

EURO is trying to break 1.34 level, thought it has a chance to go up to 1.40 level but before that it has to cross 1.36 level. Now in the downside it has initial support 1.32 level and then around 1.27. As financial market is reacting on Greece news, I think that 1.15 level is still open for it but probability is less. On the contrary more emphasis will be on the LTRO announcement in coming week.
AUD took the support of 1.06 and last days closing says that it may retest more lower supports, may be around 1.04. But looking at its past movements I think it will test hard time crossing 1.08 level, so I am still holding my stand that it may try levels above 1.08.
USD has already started to show reaction on its pattern which I said during last few weeks. So I am still holding those supports, if USD breaks 78 then its next important level is 75. I do not know whether it is going to react fully on its pattern but as I said in past that USD is forming a long-term pattern which says that it has a chance to go more in the upside in coming future. For that pattern the trigger point is, may be around 82 level.
Japanese YEN is following my words, during last few days it showed one way movements. Definitely it is in short-term over-bought condition, so it can see little corrections, may be around 79.5 levels. But in spite of that overbought condition I will say that it has a chance to test around 82 levels.
I don’t know whether Swiss FRANC is going to test 0.870 level but it is in very over-sold zone. So I am expecting that it may reverse its position in coming week and may test 0.92 level.
Brazilian REAL is still moving around 1.70 zone, but its last few days closings were better. I think it may move upside to test 1.78 level. I am still holding my view that it has a more chance to go in the upside but things will be different if it breaks 1.673.
Finance ministers statement helped for the gain of South African RAND. If it breaks 7.40 then it has a chance to go more in the downside. In the upside unless it breaks 8.10 level there is not much to say about it.


[Currencies are given against US dollar unless specifically told. Rise and drop in currency (under heading currency forecast for coming week)  means rise & drop in chart figure, not currency’s rise & drop though sometimes it is same in meaning.]

NOTE :  Please see the disclaimer of this blog.

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